A bunch of fairly credible reporting suggests that Donald Trump incorrectly believed the Iranian regime would collapse quickly if bombs started falling on Iran, and I make no argument against the view that Trump miscalculated in significant ways when he decided to go to war.
Every day I marvel at the level of stupidity that the left/media try to pass off as rational, competent analysis and dialogue. I have come to believe today's left are probably the dumbest people to ever inhabit Earth. In previous eons/ages or in other cultures, natural selection would have eliminated them somewhere in their pre-teen years. (So, yes, our social safety net is way too strong.)
Not just this but they don’t understand business at any level. At the end of the day, Trump is a businessman, not a politician, and that’s why they don’t get him.
I think it’s pretty remarkable that despite having access to more sources of “information” than ever before, most of us really don’t have a clue what’s going on. “Wait and see” is really all we can do.
One thing is undeniable: OpSec in the Trump 2.0 administration is at a level we haven't seen in many decades, maybe since WWII. Or longer.
War is messy. Trying to figure out any war in the day-to-day is infinitely difficult, even for the guys literally making the strategic, tactical, and logistical calls in the heat of every moment.
The biggest confusion in this situation, however, is the extent to which those who think they're the smartest guys in the room, yelling the loudest, refuse to acknowledge they're not even in the right building.
OpSec needs to be that good now because there are so many traitors now. Half the government would undermine any chance of success if they thought it might give them a chance for more power or money.
Yes but here’s the thing … we should be more comfortable with not knowing….why should they tell us … I would never write a story for the NYT( I know that’s a ridiculous thought ) telling them I’m going to joes at 5 pm to hit him in the head with a brick . This clamoring for information is all noise I think
You can't have any access to raw information unless you have trusted sources (like family members) in Iran. But we get a truckload of foreign disinformation. If it's conveniently translated to English for you, it's propaganda by its very definition.
I agree. Of note, there is so much suppression of information on how much damage Iran has done to Israel and Iran’s Straight of Hormuz Arab neighbors; who (Arabs), if the intelligence can be believed, want the US to level Iran because they are tired of the crazy mullah bs and attacks. I am amazed at the under reporting of the Arab countries’ interest in the outcome of the Iran war.
All of this reminds me of the wall coming down in the sense that there’s a big internal battle between the hardliners and the pragmatists going on in Iran. So, over the next weeks we’re going to see who can get control and sustain it. I think the hardliners have suffered the biggest losses so far, I can only hope the pragmatists win in the end. Ah, but who walks always with all the government owned corporations?
And that is the reason for the 2 week strategic pause. To create internal strife and chaos among who is left among the Iranian mafia. It’s a beautiful thing.
There are at least four sides, hardliners (true believers), corruptocrats (allah schmallah give me a house on the Riviera), pragmatists (why can't we all get along), and true rebels (risking lives, families, futures). And no one -- including Iranians -- knows the actual size of any group. That makes the calculus in a disequilibrated situation much trickier.
Hardliners commited to a global caliphate can't be peeled off; their numbers have been diminished but they've surely not yet been exterminated. Corruptocrats are in a death match with these true believers because corruptocrats aren't looking to be martyrs for allah (rather for the almighty dollar). True rebels are burbling below the surface mostly, I would guess: maybe seizing an opportunity to do some sabotage if it's not suicidal, but waiting for an opportunity that could won't tip but *break* the bowl, and won't get 20-40k more (probably mostly random) people killed. The regime is still executing people they scooped up last time, in a slow drip that must be horrible and maybe demoralizing (or maybe infuriating). Pragmatists are, as always, the swing group. When does it make sense to stick with the status quo, such as it is, and when or under what circumstances do they become convinced that the only way out is through?
In all scenarios, the corruptocrats end up with at least the bulk of the money-making apparatus. Maybe that changes later, through the will of the people. To be fair, our problems with that scenario are as difficult and entrenched as those of the Iranian people, if not more so.
Considering that we are at war, we should NOT have clue what is going on. My dad's letters home during WWII have redactions by the Navy censors. These days, the media would probably be screaming about 'free speech' if they saw such a thing.
Which media? I can’t tell who controls the narrative anymore with CBS and CNN changing ownership that may be more sympathetic to the Trump Administration
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I was against this war but you can certainly make a case for it. Now that we are in it we must successfully conclude it.
I feel the same way. Unfortunately, it's clear that approximately half of the country seems to be cheering on the enemy and would love to see us fail due to their extreme hatred and TDS.
For the first time in jeez a long time (not since that black F-150 passed me on a curve, come on buddy, speed limits not suggestions) I flipped off a kid (maybe 35, but I'm old) holding a big cardboard sign reading, you know, F Trump. I'm an old--but feisty--grandma. F Iran.
Trump had insisted some time ago that Iranian missiles could reach European Capitals. Everyone said he didn’t know what he was talking about. Frankly, I am surprised he waited this long. Other things had to come first, apparently.
Before this all started, I was genuinely worried that Iran would sink a carrier and kill thousands of US troops... I find myself in the surreal position of having the same people who encouraged me in that exact belief insist that Iran is victorious and has humiliated the US military and Trump by getting their own entire government and military annihilated...now I've realized that they were going to say that regardless of what happened.
First off it baffles me the number of instant world experts on strategy, armaments, geopolitics and the like that we have, and that we never even knew existed before.
Secondly, the only people who really know what's going on and the 'success/fail' parameters are those directly involved and they're never going to give you the full, unvarnished truth are they?
Thirdly, Trump and his team will have a *suite* of outcomes with associated probabilities estimated by analysts and we don't know what any of those are.
Fourthly I am greatly heartened for the future of the human race because we seem to have an impressive number of psychics around who can tell you exactly what Trump is thinking.
Fifthly, if there is such a word, none of this is over yet. Let's wait and see.
Of course it's right and proper to try to analyse what's going on with the 'facts' available to us and some of those analyses are going to be more insightful and based on some more credible knowledge than others. Some of them may even be right, or close to right.
My own speculation, and it is nothing more than speculation, is that the decision was made to act against Iran some time ago based on their assessment of how close Iran was to obtaining nuclear weapons and how strong their conventional missile armory was getting. Coupled with closer ties to both Russia and China the assessment was probably that the window for being able to do anything at all about Iran was closing, very fast.
I suspect Midnight Hammer was more of a delaying tactic so that proper plans could be produced and analysed. Of course they could not present it in that way.
I hope we have true peace soon. I hope the Iranian regime falls.
I did not vote for war with Iran, but have learned that I need to give this Admin a few weeks before I make any hard judgment.
(In retrospect, I NEVER offered Obama nor Biden, a nano-second of grace when they acted on the world stage…and that would have been a bit more mature, but they were also much more malevolent.)
Thank God for the ceasefire, even if for only a few days.
My neighbor is a C17 pilot and I’m mowing his lawn while he fights this war. I, like millions of Veterans, have been brushed by war tragedies. While not taking a ‘direct hit’, moral injury, survivor guilt/shame, and the utter devastation we witness in Gold Star families has me exhale anytime there is a cease in fighting.
My neighbor’s daughter is 18 months old…
Since the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, Team USA kicking the shit out of the world in hockey—a third or fourth tier sport in USA-March Madness, and ‘because we’re going back to the fucking moon’—I have felt an immense surge in my own love of country.
I feel like “WE ARE BACK”—and I absolutely love it! It feels like 1985.
I am utterly confused by those who are constantly calling out our nation for all her ills. What is wrong with these people?
They do not know what it feels like to win. Too bad.
They have inverted American Exceptionalism. It starts with moral pride, which leads to cultivating a connoisseur morality to distance themselves from the detested masses. Ultimately, this leads to moral inversion: Evil, be thou my good, so I can look down on my neighbors simplistic notions of right and wrong.
There is a definite class element to the oikophobia of the pseudo-intellectual crowd. They just can’t fathom that the mean tweets guy from Queens is smarter than they are and loves his country.
I came across a Ben Shapiro clip yesterday, someone who I do not follow, where he said that the country has now divided into 2 new parties, the American Exceptionalists and the Grievance Party. This is spot on.
It's clear that there are two factions inside Iran. One that agreed to the ceasefire because they want the pummeling to stop and the other faction, the radical faction that broke the ceasefire, that wants to fight to the death.
Fighting will break out between those factions, because it's obvious one faction isn't part of the suicide pact and isn't ready to meet their 72 virgins just yet. Once that fight starts, the end will come quickly. As they say, a house divided against itself cannot stand.
True, but that internal conflict was really a proxy war between Turkey and Qatar backing one side and the Saudis, the UAE and Egypt backing the other.
Due to the radicals in Iran firing rockets indiscriminately across the Middle East, they have no allies in the region with reasons to back them. Maybe Russia or China? Russia is busy elsewhere. And China would probably have joined the fight before Iran lost it's air force, navy and most of the people who know more than how to press "Launch" buttons.
That fight is going on already. We need a larger and larger chunk of the corruptocrats to see the light of pragmatism, crush their insane brethren more thoroughly, and get back to common, profitable thuggery.
I doubt if the regular Iranian army amounts to anything. Time-servering officers, last pick on equipment, ragged conscripts, and Putin level corruption is my guess.
On the right track imo. The manic jihadis of the IRGC dgaf that the (few, living, open to staying alive) Iranian politicians agree to a cease fire. The IRGC frankly doesn't care about Iran, and certainly not the Persian populace. They care about jihad!! They have far more fealty to their Hezbullah and Houthi brethren. So of course when Israel strikes Hezbullah the IRGC pulls triggers.
Question is, can the jihadis be stopped? I doubt the rational Iranian gov't folks can pull it off. I don't know if there are enough American bombs. An armed populace would help immensely but we ain't got that.
It is critical the Persian population survives. I think Trump is playing his cards to maximize the odds of that result. But it's gonna get icky.
I find the whole, “Netanyahu tricked Trump into a war with Iran,” unhelpful. At this point, does it matter? What should matter is calculating the damage we’ve caused Iran, how crippled they are militarily, and ending the war as soon as possible, not escalating it. Of course, the Iranians being “crazy bastards” will violate the current ceasefire, and we’ll have to drop them on their heads again.
If anyone violates a ceasefire it will be Isreal. And bibi didn’t need to trick anyone into anything. Trump went in full tilt, a piss poor decision that will be of no benefit to the US. It cracks me up how us Americans can keep falling for the same con as we squander billions and billions in resources fighting senseless wars in the Middle East. “Tighten the screws”…lmao, this thing has a way better shot of being Afghanistan 2.0…decades of wasted time and resources than anything else. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me 10 times and I’m just a blind sheep.
Essentially every war that lasts long enough and is costly enough to be historically noteworthy necessarily involved massive miscalculations, on both sides. Because if either side knew it was going to turn out that way, they'd have done things differently.
I think the mullahs could get Congress in line by threatening cafeteria restrictions. But hey, we’d still have the lions of the media to stand up for the American way, right? Right? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W4jWAwUb63c&ra=m
There are only 5% of the population of Iran that are IRGC, still a lot but many have been targeted and died already. "Leaders" are now younger and younger, its so bad they are sending out their wives and boys 12 and up to fight in the streets against the protesters, the real Iranians.
4.5million including women and children....yes take them out and how many adult men are fighting, many are psoting videos saying they have been lied to by the "leaders" and have left their positions. Watch Tousi TV to get real upadtes
This is a good point. Power grids are strategic targets, and for good reason. Esp. in a country like Iran, where their military owns half of everything and controls all of it. It is not - as the MSM suggests - a war crime. What is a war crime is using civilians as human shields, as Iran has tried to do. TBH, we have been incredibly efficient and compassionate in blowing their military to shreds w/o sig civilian casualties.
This is exactly right! I'd push it one step further though: the "Trump miscalculated" framing isn't just analytically incomplete, it's psychologically incapable of accounting for the fact that the ambiguity is the strategy, not a byproduct of it.
There was a moment during the tariff negotiation period when a befuddled host on one of the Sunday shows was confused about all the tariff rates flying around so she asked Scott Bessent what was going on. He calmly looked at her and said “It’s called strategic uncertainty.”
I used to have to do $$$ negotiating for a living so I can see from the people who don’t understand what’s happening that they just don’t have the skills to see the play. But then they try to tell everyone what’s happening. They don’t know what they don’t know.
I read this on another site , another take . From Charlie Garcia. He writes Capital Mischief:
The ceasefire tonight is not a ceasefire. It is the final staging.
Here is why.
The Pattern.
On March 25 he announced a 5-day pause. Said it was for diplomacy. During those five days the Tripoli crossed the Arabian Sea without a headline. The 82nd deployed. The Georgia left port. He used the pause to move pieces while the press wrote about "productive conversations."
He just did it again. Two weeks. The exact window I gave you on April 2.
Read Iran's response carefully.
Safe passage through Hormuz "will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces" with "due consideration of technical limitations." That is not reopening the Strait.
That is the toll booth with a press release. The IRGC keeps control. Ships pass with Iranian permission. The fundamental architecture does not change.
Trump will call that non-compliance on Day 14. Or Day 7. Or whenever the machine is ready. He has never met a deadline he did not set and then use as a trigger.
Where the pieces are right now.
Ford: Red Sea. Moving south. On station within 48 hours.
Bush: Mid-Atlantic with the Jolly Rogers. Arrival theater April 10-14. The third carrier.
Georgia: Eastern Mediterranean heading east. 154 Tomahawks. 66 SEAL berths. Dry Deck Shelter. Arrives Gulf area April 8-10. SEALs in the water April 9-11.
Tripoli: CENTCOM. Position increasingly vague. AIS intermittent. F-35Bs. Ospreys. 2,200 Marines. The assault force. She is already where she needs to be.
Boxer: En route. Diego Garcia arrival approximately April 10-12. The BLT debarks there. 1,200 Marines board C-17s. Fly directly to Kharg once the runway is fixed.
82nd: Command element in theater. Main body deploying. The general went first. The division follows.
What happens before the Marines land.
This is the checklist. The ceasefire buys time to complete it.
SEALs insert from the Georgia. Swimmer Delivery Vehicles from the Dry Deck Shelter. They swim onto Kharg and the Bushehr coast simultaneously.
Hydrographic reconnaissance. Beach gradients. Infrared beacon placement. Every surviving IRGC position mapped. Undersea fiber-optic cables cut. The island goes deaf.
CIA Ground Branch links up. They have been on the island. Possibly for weeks. Embedded in the civilian oil workforce.
Patrol schedules. Tunnel entrances. Which commander is a fanatic and which one wants to go home. When the SEALs arrive, Ground Branch is the welcome committee.
B-2 Spirits hit remaining hardened coastal positions on the Bushehr mainland. The 55-kilometer strip facing Kharg.
Anything the first two bombardments did not destroy. GBU-72 5,000-pound penetrators collapse the bunkers that survived conventional strikes.
EA-37B Compass Call orbits the northern Gulf. Jams every frequency the IRGC uses. The Kharg garrison goes deaf. The mainland goes blind. Communications severed.
Georgia's Tomahawks hit every position the SEALs marked. Oil infrastructure untouched. Third time.
Then silence. The silence before H-Hour.
Ospreys launch from the Tripoli. 24 Marines per bird. Three waves before sunrise. 82nd drops onto the airstrip simultaneously. Rangers and combat engineers fix the runway. First C-130 lands within hours. First C-17 by nightfall.
48 hours later the BLT arrives from Diego Garcia by C-17. The garrison triples. Patriot batteries operational. MADIS online.
The dimmer switch starts at zero.
The timeline.
April 8-10: Georgia arrives. SEALs deploy. Five simultaneous missions begin.
April 10-12: Boxer arrives Diego Garcia. BLT stages. Bush arrives theater. Three carriers on station.
April 11-16: Everything converges. The ceasefire provides cover. The press writes about diplomacy. The SEALs are in the water.
When Iran's "coordination with Armed Forces" produces the same toll booth under a different name, Trump has his predicate. Non-compliance. The permission slip is signed.
The bottom line.
He paused bombing on March 25 and moved the Tripoli into position. He paused bombing tonight and the Georgia, the Bush, and the Boxer are all in transit.
Every pause has been a positioning window. Every deadline has been a countdown timer for the audience while the military clock runs on its own schedule.
This is not the sixth extension. This is the last staging window disguised as the sixth extension.
April 9 through 16. Watch the Tripoli's AIS. Watch the Georgia disappear. Watch the silence.
The calendar bows to the signal. The signal is now.
She had to leave Iran after she was threatened. She gets it more than any of the pseudo-intellectuals whining about something they do not have the capacity to understand.
Being a Monarchist is common among the younger Iranian exiles and it makes perfect sense.
it’s understandable because they have heard of the glory days of Iran under the Shah from their older relatives, but they never got to experience it. So they are understandably nostalgic for that time, and if they tie the monarchy to the glory days, more power to them.
They need to have something to believe in that is the total opposite of the mullahs. This is a good thing as it sustains their belief in a revitalized Iran. It doesn’t matter as Americans of what we think of the monarchy, only what they think.
Trump was fed a line of BS from BiBi and the well paid Israeli consultants in the US Congress. Trump proved that he can be lied too with flattery as he proved during Covid where he allowed Fauci to lie to him and even after he realizes he has been played did nothing to Fauci. our intel agencies were in on the lie too. Trump had others telling him no but in the end he made a decision based upon lies and now has to find an escape door Look for more calls from the Neo Cons and the Israeli lobbyists calling for American boots on the ground etc. this is far from over.
I would say, if anything, that Israel convinced him that there is no better time, if it needs to happen there will never a better chance than right now, after the events of the last 24-30 months.
And they were and are right in that assessment.
Many of us have no use for the idea that Trump is doing what Bibi wants, i'd call it a convergence of desires and opportunity.
A nuclear iran is a danger far beyond Israel.
Funny that no one accuses the Saudis of making Trump do it, they have just as much, maybe even more to gain from the iranian nutbars getting what for?
Too many have reported that it was BiBi and not the Sauds. And the visceral reaction from the Israel defenders just by saying it is all we need to know to know that its true. BiBi is a well known charmer and so is Trump, So in the end they charmed themselves into a horrible decision for the United States.
It’s clear Trump owns himself. Just like you own you, and I own me. Everything else is just politics, and one person trying to get another. That’s almost all there is…
I agree. We are not privy to all the intelligence surrounding this war but all the "experts" bloviate nevertheless. I read one question on another blog which stays in my mind.
"Should we have waited for the mushroom cloud to hit the US?" 47 years of threats; thousands of their own people slaughtered...
What I'm utterly shocked by is that Trump takes the most extreme position to try to negotiate deals to his advantage.
I mean just shocked....
24 hrs ago: "Oh my you're committing war crimes! Its a literal gENoCiDe!
Today: "Trump is a pussy who taco'd under pressure "
Forget Trumps potential mistakes and behold the sub-retards that live amongst us.
Every day I marvel at the level of stupidity that the left/media try to pass off as rational, competent analysis and dialogue. I have come to believe today's left are probably the dumbest people to ever inhabit Earth. In previous eons/ages or in other cultures, natural selection would have eliminated them somewhere in their pre-teen years. (So, yes, our social safety net is way too strong.)
if you subsidize failure long enough, this is what you get
Genuine Lmao!
No they are Grade A Prime retards.
Yes, when someone is extra special good at something, we should acknowledge that.
LOLOLOL
Always look forward to your comments, Ryan. Another classic!
There's just soooo much material, I feel like I could do it sleep walking...lolol
^ what he said.
Sub – retards… I’m stealing that!
And we let them vote; 2 and 3 times.
Even after they're dead.
Are you suggesting that they CAN read?
I know that Newsom can't ---- literally.
Literally: "Lawks a mussey! Ah sho' is a retard jes like you folks." Wonder how well that went down?
Not just this but they don’t understand business at any level. At the end of the day, Trump is a businessman, not a politician, and that’s why they don’t get him.
Well considering how allergic they are to seeing his name, no, I'm pretty sure they didn't.
Or even considered the concept!
I think it’s pretty remarkable that despite having access to more sources of “information” than ever before, most of us really don’t have a clue what’s going on. “Wait and see” is really all we can do.
One thing is undeniable: OpSec in the Trump 2.0 administration is at a level we haven't seen in many decades, maybe since WWII. Or longer.
War is messy. Trying to figure out any war in the day-to-day is infinitely difficult, even for the guys literally making the strategic, tactical, and logistical calls in the heat of every moment.
The biggest confusion in this situation, however, is the extent to which those who think they're the smartest guys in the room, yelling the loudest, refuse to acknowledge they're not even in the right building.
OpSec needs to be that good now because there are so many traitors now. Half the government would undermine any chance of success if they thought it might give them a chance for more power or money.
Absolutely correct.
I'm glad to hear that.
Yes but here’s the thing … we should be more comfortable with not knowing….why should they tell us … I would never write a story for the NYT( I know that’s a ridiculous thought ) telling them I’m going to joes at 5 pm to hit him in the head with a brick . This clamoring for information is all noise I think
You can't have any access to raw information unless you have trusted sources (like family members) in Iran. But we get a truckload of foreign disinformation. If it's conveniently translated to English for you, it's propaganda by its very definition.
Tousi TV real info
Tousi - I thought so initially. As time goes on, I think Tousi has a lot of wishful thinking.
I don't think Tousi has any feel for the Persian Street.
I agree. Of note, there is so much suppression of information on how much damage Iran has done to Israel and Iran’s Straight of Hormuz Arab neighbors; who (Arabs), if the intelligence can be believed, want the US to level Iran because they are tired of the crazy mullah bs and attacks. I am amazed at the under reporting of the Arab countries’ interest in the outcome of the Iran war.
All of this reminds me of the wall coming down in the sense that there’s a big internal battle between the hardliners and the pragmatists going on in Iran. So, over the next weeks we’re going to see who can get control and sustain it. I think the hardliners have suffered the biggest losses so far, I can only hope the pragmatists win in the end. Ah, but who walks always with all the government owned corporations?
If it isn’t reported that can only be due to the fact that the news doesn’t fit the Narrative.
Here’s the confirmation: “Following Iran’s aggression it is ironic how one will find today more anti-US articles written in English than in Arabic. https://xcancel.com/zriboua/status/2042019229000466579#m
And that is the reason for the 2 week strategic pause. To create internal strife and chaos among who is left among the Iranian mafia. It’s a beautiful thing.
There are at least four sides, hardliners (true believers), corruptocrats (allah schmallah give me a house on the Riviera), pragmatists (why can't we all get along), and true rebels (risking lives, families, futures). And no one -- including Iranians -- knows the actual size of any group. That makes the calculus in a disequilibrated situation much trickier.
Hardliners commited to a global caliphate can't be peeled off; their numbers have been diminished but they've surely not yet been exterminated. Corruptocrats are in a death match with these true believers because corruptocrats aren't looking to be martyrs for allah (rather for the almighty dollar). True rebels are burbling below the surface mostly, I would guess: maybe seizing an opportunity to do some sabotage if it's not suicidal, but waiting for an opportunity that could won't tip but *break* the bowl, and won't get 20-40k more (probably mostly random) people killed. The regime is still executing people they scooped up last time, in a slow drip that must be horrible and maybe demoralizing (or maybe infuriating). Pragmatists are, as always, the swing group. When does it make sense to stick with the status quo, such as it is, and when or under what circumstances do they become convinced that the only way out is through?
In all scenarios, the corruptocrats end up with at least the bulk of the money-making apparatus. Maybe that changes later, through the will of the people. To be fair, our problems with that scenario are as difficult and entrenched as those of the Iranian people, if not more so.
Considering that we are at war, we should NOT have clue what is going on. My dad's letters home during WWII have redactions by the Navy censors. These days, the media would probably be screaming about 'free speech' if they saw such a thing.
Which media? I can’t tell who controls the narrative anymore with CBS and CNN changing ownership that may be more sympathetic to the Trump Administration
The good news is that we never did - any belief to the contrary was an illusion -, so nothing was lost.
Knowing isn't as fun as it's made out to be. If Wait and See is the answer no matter what, it's probably better to just be a moron.
Tousi TV real info
Not really. Lot of wishful thinking by Tousi.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I was against this war but you can certainly make a case for it. Now that we are in it we must successfully conclude it.
I feel the same way. Unfortunately, it's clear that approximately half of the country seems to be cheering on the enemy and would love to see us fail due to their extreme hatred and TDS.
For the first time in jeez a long time (not since that black F-150 passed me on a curve, come on buddy, speed limits not suggestions) I flipped off a kid (maybe 35, but I'm old) holding a big cardboard sign reading, you know, F Trump. I'm an old--but feisty--grandma. F Iran.
Exactly how I feel
Trump had insisted some time ago that Iranian missiles could reach European Capitals. Everyone said he didn’t know what he was talking about. Frankly, I am surprised he waited this long. Other things had to come first, apparently.
Ditto.
Before this all started, I was genuinely worried that Iran would sink a carrier and kill thousands of US troops... I find myself in the surreal position of having the same people who encouraged me in that exact belief insist that Iran is victorious and has humiliated the US military and Trump by getting their own entire government and military annihilated...now I've realized that they were going to say that regardless of what happened.
Yup. And remember: Ukraine is winning!
First off it baffles me the number of instant world experts on strategy, armaments, geopolitics and the like that we have, and that we never even knew existed before.
Secondly, the only people who really know what's going on and the 'success/fail' parameters are those directly involved and they're never going to give you the full, unvarnished truth are they?
Thirdly, Trump and his team will have a *suite* of outcomes with associated probabilities estimated by analysts and we don't know what any of those are.
Fourthly I am greatly heartened for the future of the human race because we seem to have an impressive number of psychics around who can tell you exactly what Trump is thinking.
Fifthly, if there is such a word, none of this is over yet. Let's wait and see.
Of course it's right and proper to try to analyse what's going on with the 'facts' available to us and some of those analyses are going to be more insightful and based on some more credible knowledge than others. Some of them may even be right, or close to right.
My own speculation, and it is nothing more than speculation, is that the decision was made to act against Iran some time ago based on their assessment of how close Iran was to obtaining nuclear weapons and how strong their conventional missile armory was getting. Coupled with closer ties to both Russia and China the assessment was probably that the window for being able to do anything at all about Iran was closing, very fast.
I suspect Midnight Hammer was more of a delaying tactic so that proper plans could be produced and analysed. Of course they could not present it in that way.
I hope we have true peace soon. I hope the Iranian regime falls.
Yes
I did not vote for war with Iran, but have learned that I need to give this Admin a few weeks before I make any hard judgment.
(In retrospect, I NEVER offered Obama nor Biden, a nano-second of grace when they acted on the world stage…and that would have been a bit more mature, but they were also much more malevolent.)
Thank God for the ceasefire, even if for only a few days.
My neighbor is a C17 pilot and I’m mowing his lawn while he fights this war. I, like millions of Veterans, have been brushed by war tragedies. While not taking a ‘direct hit’, moral injury, survivor guilt/shame, and the utter devastation we witness in Gold Star families has me exhale anytime there is a cease in fighting.
My neighbor’s daughter is 18 months old…
Since the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, Team USA kicking the shit out of the world in hockey—a third or fourth tier sport in USA-March Madness, and ‘because we’re going back to the fucking moon’—I have felt an immense surge in my own love of country.
I feel like “WE ARE BACK”—and I absolutely love it! It feels like 1985.
I am utterly confused by those who are constantly calling out our nation for all her ills. What is wrong with these people?
They do not know what it feels like to win. Too bad.
bsn
They do not believe in American Exceptionalism. That’s it.
They have inverted American Exceptionalism. It starts with moral pride, which leads to cultivating a connoisseur morality to distance themselves from the detested masses. Ultimately, this leads to moral inversion: Evil, be thou my good, so I can look down on my neighbors simplistic notions of right and wrong.
Excellent comment!
There is a definite class element to the oikophobia of the pseudo-intellectual crowd. They just can’t fathom that the mean tweets guy from Queens is smarter than they are and loves his country.
I came across a Ben Shapiro clip yesterday, someone who I do not follow, where he said that the country has now divided into 2 new parties, the American Exceptionalists and the Grievance Party. This is spot on.
They think it makes them look smart.
I wouldn't expect people who deify failure to know what winning feels like.
You're right. And My DIL said it best today: Aslan is on the move.
It's clear that there are two factions inside Iran. One that agreed to the ceasefire because they want the pummeling to stop and the other faction, the radical faction that broke the ceasefire, that wants to fight to the death.
Fighting will break out between those factions, because it's obvious one faction isn't part of the suicide pact and isn't ready to meet their 72 virgins just yet. Once that fight starts, the end will come quickly. As they say, a house divided against itself cannot stand.
"Once that fight starts, the end will come quickly." This part went on in post-collapse Libya for a long time, and I'm not convinced about this part.
True, but that internal conflict was really a proxy war between Turkey and Qatar backing one side and the Saudis, the UAE and Egypt backing the other.
Due to the radicals in Iran firing rockets indiscriminately across the Middle East, they have no allies in the region with reasons to back them. Maybe Russia or China? Russia is busy elsewhere. And China would probably have joined the fight before Iran lost it's air force, navy and most of the people who know more than how to press "Launch" buttons.
That fight is going on already. We need a larger and larger chunk of the corruptocrats to see the light of pragmatism, crush their insane brethren more thoroughly, and get back to common, profitable thuggery.
As far as we know the street is keeping quiet and the army hasn’t picked a side. The situation is fluid…
I doubt if the regular Iranian army amounts to anything. Time-servering officers, last pick on equipment, ragged conscripts, and Putin level corruption is my guess.
Time will tell.
so many civil wars endure for years, or are never truly resolved.
On the right track imo. The manic jihadis of the IRGC dgaf that the (few, living, open to staying alive) Iranian politicians agree to a cease fire. The IRGC frankly doesn't care about Iran, and certainly not the Persian populace. They care about jihad!! They have far more fealty to their Hezbullah and Houthi brethren. So of course when Israel strikes Hezbullah the IRGC pulls triggers.
Question is, can the jihadis be stopped? I doubt the rational Iranian gov't folks can pull it off. I don't know if there are enough American bombs. An armed populace would help immensely but we ain't got that.
It is critical the Persian population survives. I think Trump is playing his cards to maximize the odds of that result. But it's gonna get icky.
Unfortunately the dominant faction is negotiating with all our allies and making us look like fools.
I find the whole, “Netanyahu tricked Trump into a war with Iran,” unhelpful. At this point, does it matter? What should matter is calculating the damage we’ve caused Iran, how crippled they are militarily, and ending the war as soon as possible, not escalating it. Of course, the Iranians being “crazy bastards” will violate the current ceasefire, and we’ll have to drop them on their heads again.
please please, refer to the regime by IRGC, the real Iranians are not crazy bastards...they asked Trump for help to remove this oppressive regime
Did you assume he was referring to All Iranians?
I see your point. I didn’t mean the ordinary Iranians. The IRGC are clearly the crazy bastards.
Did he seperate them out?
It’s just another talking point for the anti-Semitic crowd. They don’t care about Iran but they hate Israel.
no way Netanyahu tricked Trump into a war with Iran
but maybe he blackmailed him?
If anyone violates a ceasefire it will be Isreal. And bibi didn’t need to trick anyone into anything. Trump went in full tilt, a piss poor decision that will be of no benefit to the US. It cracks me up how us Americans can keep falling for the same con as we squander billions and billions in resources fighting senseless wars in the Middle East. “Tighten the screws”…lmao, this thing has a way better shot of being Afghanistan 2.0…decades of wasted time and resources than anything else. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me 10 times and I’m just a blind sheep.
Tighten the thumb screws. How long will the low-hanging fruit be willing to resist the pressure?
I trust a soldier over a journalist any day regarding war reporting. But a soldier-journalist? Chris, your calm head prevails amid the chaos.
Essentially every war that lasts long enough and is costly enough to be historically noteworthy necessarily involved massive miscalculations, on both sides. Because if either side knew it was going to turn out that way, they'd have done things differently.
I agree this is only the beginning but I’d bet anything it won’t last 20 years. One way or another.
Its already lasted 47 years.
I'm glad the usa didn't destroy the grid. The grid is everything and as far as i'm concerned it is the last step before nukes, its that bad.
Not going to make friends with that one.
Keep picking off leaders with pinpoint intelligence, seems to be an israeli specialty, eventually you must (likely?) get to one that wants to live?
There can only be so many true believers, has to be someone in the chain that is not willing to chance if the 72 virgins thing is solid?.
When Bush destroyed the Iraq grid on day 1 it didn’t lead to nukes. Neither would the Iranian grid.
It led to decades of strife.
I never said it would "lead to" nukes, i said its the worst thing you can do to a civilian population short of nuking them. The grid is everything.
And i think Saddam had a lot more support at home than the iranian madmullahs do, so lets try to keep the populace on our side as long as possible?
I’d think that they could disable a grid without bombing it. We evidently had secret tech that helped locate the downed pilot. Maybe I’ll ask grok.
Yeah but bombs are fun.
Channeling Sec. Hegseth
How many Congressmen and generals would Russia have to bomb before we surrendered?
All of them, and then some, right?
Ooooo!
Is the "positivity" thing not usually on Monday?
😂
It is and it was!
https://simulationcommander.substack.com/p/mostly-mended-monday
Edit: OH, I see what you were saying! ;)
I think the mullahs could get Congress in line by threatening cafeteria restrictions. But hey, we’d still have the lions of the media to stand up for the American way, right? Right? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W4jWAwUb63c&ra=m
There are only 5% of the population of Iran that are IRGC, still a lot but many have been targeted and died already. "Leaders" are now younger and younger, its so bad they are sending out their wives and boys 12 and up to fight in the streets against the protesters, the real Iranians.
That's 4.5 million people.
4.5million including women and children....yes take them out and how many adult men are fighting, many are psoting videos saying they have been lied to by the "leaders" and have left their positions. Watch Tousi TV to get real upadtes
you had me at Congress.
I don't think that is a valid comparison, with the madmullahs
Because they're even more insane?
As i said, you keep on whack-a-mole until you get to someone who wants to live.
Its pretty clear this is doable
It wouldn't be possible HERE, and they're supposedly the insane religious death cult.
only 4.5 million including women and children the rest of Irans real people are forced but fighting back
🤣🤣🤣
The power grid is considered an acceptable target since it provides electricity not just to the civilian population but it has military uses as well.
Yes, but it should be the last resort.
I'd say differently in Gaza where 90% of the population supports Hamas.
Taking out the grid is collective punishment on the entire population.
I'm saying that in Iran the regime has very little support, estimated at less than 15% before shots fired.
Nothing will anger that 85% more than losing the necessities of life.
A city of 9 mil like Tehran becomes uninhabitable.
If we get to the point where the madmullahs are at the nuke threshold, ready to launch, then ask me again.
Not today.
My guess is that regime support in Iran is about 30-40% and that there is a rural/urban divide.
I suspect that the IRGC has spun it as an attack on Shia Islam.
If it hastens the collapse of the regime then all 9 million would benefit.
You could hit half a dozen major substations, knock down the grid to put pressure, something that could be fixed in a reasonable frame.
Destroying all the generation means a decade.
I'm not ready to endorse that.
We can disagree.
This is a good point. Power grids are strategic targets, and for good reason. Esp. in a country like Iran, where their military owns half of everything and controls all of it. It is not - as the MSM suggests - a war crime. What is a war crime is using civilians as human shields, as Iran has tried to do. TBH, we have been incredibly efficient and compassionate in blowing their military to shreds w/o sig civilian casualties.
Does anyone know why 72? Does 71 mean you’re in hell ? 73 and now you’re greedy , so again , hell ?
More than 72 goats are hard to control and all animals need to be paired so it has to be an even number. Hence 72.
Are we now comparing virgins to goats? Cracking up 🤣
you probably know this one: muslim suicide bomber blows himself up and wakes up to find himself in a nursing home. lots of old ladies in wheelchairs
bomber asks the orderly, "where are my 72 virgins?"
orderly says "they're right here"
I did not🤣
That was all the fingers and toes they had available to count on that day.
Well when you work with explosives you can lose fingers and toes.
On a careful reading I think it's 72 in total who have to accommodate all the flea-infested recently deceased.
Plucked out of the air, like "don't eat pork".
Which i support, more bacon for me.
As the middle east dried up in pre-modern times, pigs fouled water holes in a way that goats and sheep do not.
There is a valid reason for the proscription against pork in the middle east.
That is an opinion
Pretty good science behind it.
This is exactly right! I'd push it one step further though: the "Trump miscalculated" framing isn't just analytically incomplete, it's psychologically incapable of accounting for the fact that the ambiguity is the strategy, not a byproduct of it.
There was a moment during the tariff negotiation period when a befuddled host on one of the Sunday shows was confused about all the tariff rates flying around so she asked Scott Bessent what was going on. He calmly looked at her and said “It’s called strategic uncertainty.”
Or strategic ambiguity. Uncertainty is itself a weapon, and the president wields it with the fluency of long practice.
Agreed. I see them as similar.
I used to have to do $$$ negotiating for a living so I can see from the people who don’t understand what’s happening that they just don’t have the skills to see the play. But then they try to tell everyone what’s happening. They don’t know what they don’t know.
I read this on another site , another take . From Charlie Garcia. He writes Capital Mischief:
The ceasefire tonight is not a ceasefire. It is the final staging.
Here is why.
The Pattern.
On March 25 he announced a 5-day pause. Said it was for diplomacy. During those five days the Tripoli crossed the Arabian Sea without a headline. The 82nd deployed. The Georgia left port. He used the pause to move pieces while the press wrote about "productive conversations."
He just did it again. Two weeks. The exact window I gave you on April 2.
Read Iran's response carefully.
Safe passage through Hormuz "will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces" with "due consideration of technical limitations." That is not reopening the Strait.
That is the toll booth with a press release. The IRGC keeps control. Ships pass with Iranian permission. The fundamental architecture does not change.
Trump will call that non-compliance on Day 14. Or Day 7. Or whenever the machine is ready. He has never met a deadline he did not set and then use as a trigger.
Where the pieces are right now.
Ford: Red Sea. Moving south. On station within 48 hours.
Bush: Mid-Atlantic with the Jolly Rogers. Arrival theater April 10-14. The third carrier.
Georgia: Eastern Mediterranean heading east. 154 Tomahawks. 66 SEAL berths. Dry Deck Shelter. Arrives Gulf area April 8-10. SEALs in the water April 9-11.
Tripoli: CENTCOM. Position increasingly vague. AIS intermittent. F-35Bs. Ospreys. 2,200 Marines. The assault force. She is already where she needs to be.
Boxer: En route. Diego Garcia arrival approximately April 10-12. The BLT debarks there. 1,200 Marines board C-17s. Fly directly to Kharg once the runway is fixed.
82nd: Command element in theater. Main body deploying. The general went first. The division follows.
What happens before the Marines land.
This is the checklist. The ceasefire buys time to complete it.
SEALs insert from the Georgia. Swimmer Delivery Vehicles from the Dry Deck Shelter. They swim onto Kharg and the Bushehr coast simultaneously.
Hydrographic reconnaissance. Beach gradients. Infrared beacon placement. Every surviving IRGC position mapped. Undersea fiber-optic cables cut. The island goes deaf.
CIA Ground Branch links up. They have been on the island. Possibly for weeks. Embedded in the civilian oil workforce.
Patrol schedules. Tunnel entrances. Which commander is a fanatic and which one wants to go home. When the SEALs arrive, Ground Branch is the welcome committee.
B-2 Spirits hit remaining hardened coastal positions on the Bushehr mainland. The 55-kilometer strip facing Kharg.
Anything the first two bombardments did not destroy. GBU-72 5,000-pound penetrators collapse the bunkers that survived conventional strikes.
EA-37B Compass Call orbits the northern Gulf. Jams every frequency the IRGC uses. The Kharg garrison goes deaf. The mainland goes blind. Communications severed.
Georgia's Tomahawks hit every position the SEALs marked. Oil infrastructure untouched. Third time.
Then silence. The silence before H-Hour.
Ospreys launch from the Tripoli. 24 Marines per bird. Three waves before sunrise. 82nd drops onto the airstrip simultaneously. Rangers and combat engineers fix the runway. First C-130 lands within hours. First C-17 by nightfall.
48 hours later the BLT arrives from Diego Garcia by C-17. The garrison triples. Patriot batteries operational. MADIS online.
The dimmer switch starts at zero.
The timeline.
April 8-10: Georgia arrives. SEALs deploy. Five simultaneous missions begin.
April 10-12: Boxer arrives Diego Garcia. BLT stages. Bush arrives theater. Three carriers on station.
April 11-16: Everything converges. The ceasefire provides cover. The press writes about diplomacy. The SEALs are in the water.
When Iran's "coordination with Armed Forces" produces the same toll booth under a different name, Trump has his predicate. Non-compliance. The permission slip is signed.
The bottom line.
He paused bombing on March 25 and moved the Tripoli into position. He paused bombing tonight and the Georgia, the Bush, and the Boxer are all in transit.
Every pause has been a positioning window. Every deadline has been a countdown timer for the audience while the military clock runs on its own schedule.
This is not the sixth extension. This is the last staging window disguised as the sixth extension.
April 9 through 16. Watch the Tripoli's AIS. Watch the Georgia disappear. Watch the silence.
The calendar bows to the signal. The signal is now.
May the Mischief be with you.
Good stuff. This is nothing more than a strategic pause before the end game.
Check out Iranian exile Ida Turan. This 35 year old is wise beyond her years. https://xcancel.com/iranidaturan
She had to leave Iran after she was threatened. She gets it more than any of the pseudo-intellectuals whining about something they do not have the capacity to understand.
She is a 'Monarchist'? The Shah and his family left 8 hours before the lynch mob. I don't think that there is much future for monarchy in Iran.
Being a Monarchist is common among the younger Iranian exiles and it makes perfect sense.
it’s understandable because they have heard of the glory days of Iran under the Shah from their older relatives, but they never got to experience it. So they are understandably nostalgic for that time, and if they tie the monarchy to the glory days, more power to them.
They need to have something to believe in that is the total opposite of the mullahs. This is a good thing as it sustains their belief in a revitalized Iran. It doesn’t matter as Americans of what we think of the monarchy, only what they think.
Thanks for that link
Here’s another woman who is also great. Fantastic analysis on the entire Middle East. https://xcancel.com/zriboua
😉
Trump was fed a line of BS from BiBi and the well paid Israeli consultants in the US Congress. Trump proved that he can be lied too with flattery as he proved during Covid where he allowed Fauci to lie to him and even after he realizes he has been played did nothing to Fauci. our intel agencies were in on the lie too. Trump had others telling him no but in the end he made a decision based upon lies and now has to find an escape door Look for more calls from the Neo Cons and the Israeli lobbyists calling for American boots on the ground etc. this is far from over.
I would say, if anything, that Israel convinced him that there is no better time, if it needs to happen there will never a better chance than right now, after the events of the last 24-30 months.
And they were and are right in that assessment.
Many of us have no use for the idea that Trump is doing what Bibi wants, i'd call it a convergence of desires and opportunity.
A nuclear iran is a danger far beyond Israel.
Funny that no one accuses the Saudis of making Trump do it, they have just as much, maybe even more to gain from the iranian nutbars getting what for?
I keep forgetting who is it that owns Trump.
Maybe all of them.
Too many have reported that it was BiBi and not the Sauds. And the visceral reaction from the Israel defenders just by saying it is all we need to know to know that its true. BiBi is a well known charmer and so is Trump, So in the end they charmed themselves into a horrible decision for the United States.
People see what they want to see.
For sure Bibi visited washington before the kickoff, working on details.
But right there in plain view is the abraham accords.
You can continue to believe that Trump and the USA are idiots, fighting for Israel.
I think the picture is far larger than that but we all have to hold onto the beliefs that comfort us.
Don't forget our favorite gay senator traipsing around Israel and building support for the war....
Who could that be? LoL!
Didn't seem to work?
It did because we went to war almost immediately afterward.
https://thewinepress.substack.com/p/lindsey-graham-says-the-wars-of-the
It’s clear Trump owns himself. Just like you own you, and I own me. Everything else is just politics, and one person trying to get another. That’s almost all there is…
Nobody accuses the Saudis because they didn't do it. Israel did.
Ok
Glad to know, you must have been involved in all the discussions to know all the reasoning.
What intel! How close is your White House office to the Oval Office?
Better than yours Melanie tells me everything. :)
Melanie? Who’s Melanie?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeKgLLaa4-E
Excellent take on this.
I agree. We are not privy to all the intelligence surrounding this war but all the "experts" bloviate nevertheless. I read one question on another blog which stays in my mind.
"Should we have waited for the mushroom cloud to hit the US?" 47 years of threats; thousands of their own people slaughtered...