Let's Talk About This

an invitation

I want to invite your thoughts on a few questions, because it beats me, and maybe we can make some educated guesses together. I’ll post this and then shut up through the weekend to give the discussion some space. So.

First

In 2019, the Republican candidate for governor in Kentucky got just short of 705,000 votes. In 2023, the Republican candidate for governor in Kentucky got 627,000 votes. There are a dozen ways to explain this 12%+ loss of Republican support in a red state at a moment when the repulsive and insane Democratic Party is the party of mutilating trans kids and prosecuting the political opposition, and the explanations have been widely discussed elsewhere, but I want to suggest the possibility of a different reason:

What if Republican voters are just getting really tired of the Republican Party? Let a couple of examples stand in for the whole list:

The DOJ is obviously politicizing American justice, and congressional Republicans are tweeting about it really hard. The border is wide open, and congressional Republicans have written a number of strongly worded letters. And so on. Merrick Garland and Alejandro Mayorkas have considerable job security, which is pretty remarkable.

What if endless Republican weakness has just turned a growing percentage of Republican voters toward complete indifference? What’s the future of a political party that has no approach but going along to get along? What trajectory is implied by endlessly giving in? Who votes for that over and over again, and why?

Though I can’t prove this, it seems to me that a growing number of Republican-inclined voters have concluded that “we can’t vote our way out of this,” and so they aren’t going to go on trying. They see that voting for Republican politicians isn’t a meaningful act, so they don’t bother. The GOP has Ronna McDanieled itself into irrelevance.

Second

The important paradox here is that the more the political “mainstream” is despised, the more it will prevail — as voters, people outside the political class, withdraw from participation. A failing thing will succeed; worthless institutions and pathetic leaders will win the support of a growing percentage of a shrinking electorate. Talk me out of this conclusion, because I’m struggling to see a way around it.

Third

Polls suggest that both Biden and Trump have about 30% enthusiastic support among voters, and around half of the electorate flatly wouldn’t vote for either: “Fifty-one percent of voters said there is no chance they will vote for Biden, the poll found, and 48 percent said there is no chance they will vote for Trump.” Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. hovers around 40% favorability in polls, and has announced that his candidacy is now independent — free of a connection to a political party.

So the political party that has now indicted and sued the Republican frontrunner in five different courtrooms and counting faces a challenge from an independent with an enormously famous name who is challenging a shambling Democratic POTUS as he mumbles and slurs his corrupt and dimwitted way into the election year. The numbers get interesting in a hurry: Trump 30%, Biden 30%, Kennedy 40%.

When does Jack Smith indict Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.? Under these circumstances, how likely is it that Kennedy becomes a target for lawfare?

Democrats have already set up the indictment of Ron DeSantis, in case he becomes the Republican frontrunner:

This is normal Democratic Party politics, now. If Kennedy becomes a serious threat, how obvious will they dare to make it?

Tell me you can’t imagine Biden running against a Republican frontrunner who is under indictment and a strong independent candidate who is under indictment. Because I sure can.

Over to you.