My view is that there is gray zone warfare directed at the US being perpetrated by several countries, including Iran, China, Russia, Cuba and until recently Venezuela, and probably more. The summer of 2020 riots were part of it, with financial support and training coming from outside actors, with riots being run like military operations. Drug problems kill more Americans every year than died in the whole of the Vietnam war, and the cartels seem to be in bed with these forces. I think this operation is designed to end this gray zone warfare, and there is probably no desire to take over Iran, only to end their operations that have killed thousands of Americans world wide. (The average Iranians might be happy to see the islamists out of power, but they would certainly fight an invading army. Maybe Zoroastrianism will start replacing Islam.) We are seeing an ongoing operation to end the gray zone warfare; Cartels are being attacked, the border is looking more like a border, Venezuela is being severed from the attacking forces, Cuba is being neutered and might rejoin humanity while China is being squeezed by oil restriction from both the Venezuela and Iran operations. Obviously I don't know how it will turn out.
You are absolutely correct about the gray zone warfare, but as I said in my lengthy comment, I think he will be using all that to go after Democrats and the domestic left. I think I know how it will turn out: huge scandals, lots of indictments (including big names), and historic Democrat defeats in 2026 and 2028.
Do you follow Susan Kokinda on Substack, and her colleague Barbara Boyd?
Two awesome elder ladies who have been following these issues since the 1970s...and as somebody raised to view pretty much everything in the world in ways that dovetail perfectly with what they're saying (they're saying what, e.g., my own petroleum-industry-shipbuilding 17th-century-founding-stock fathers would have said about all this), I feel others should know about them.
Sample--Barbara laying out what she sees DJT doing:
It is isomeric with what you're saying about what Will below calls the "all-in-one pincer."
> Maybe Zoroastrianism will start replacing Islam
Maybe. Maybe parts of Islam aren't what we're told.
Maybe those particularly extreme imams were put in power to keep chaos going, permawar from which the Empire of the City of London could profit. I mean, those Rot Childs do love their war industry, and their usury, and using propaganda to gin up tension and division.
Admittedly I'm not big on the whole Abrahamic thing, but everybody knows that The Adversary does like to lie. Even some Muslims I've known recognized that. Men and women not at all like the cartoons being held up for Two Minutes' Hate every three minutes.
Hm.
> Keep us from our hater, O Mazda!
> Perish, O fiendish Druj!
> Perish, O brood of the fiend!
> Perish, O world of the fiend!
> Perish away to the regions of the north, never more to give unto death the living world of the holy spirit!
Yes, I am familiar with them. I wouldn’t say I follow them, but they are quite interesting and no doubt the British have controlled a lot. Much of the American Revolution was about the British trying to control our economics. Besides that, I think there are plenty of other bad actors around the world. It’s like a jungle full of predators, vying with each other, not one big monolithic structure.
That's a good way of describing the global power situation. I think if it as dealing with a passive/aggressive group led by China that's always undermining America. Trump just bitch slapped a couple members of that group, who are dismayed that their big buddies (Russia and China) let them get humiliated.
I will enter the challenge with an extremely confident opinion. Trump would not do this (and in a midterm year) unless he was confident of a quick win. He’s already done one new and remarkably cheap and efficient form of regime change in Venezuela. True, Iran is a bigger, more complex, and bloodier task, but they're highly vulnerable to the air supremacy and digital advantages of the US and Israel. They’re hated by much of their population and most of their neighbors. We can choke their economy, destroy IRCG assets with precise strikes, and keep offing mullahs until a surrender, a popular uprising, or some combination. Few if any boots on the ground will be needed.
Trump used to plan big, multi-year real estate deals with lots of moving parts, so I’m sure he's approaching all this in the same way. Venezuela, Iran, and soon Cuba are part of the big picture, connecting not just China and Russia, but to the US and international left, which is in turn intertwined with the Democratic Party and the Deep State. He’s got a bunch of smart advisors who know and hate the left, so they must know this. The quick DOGE sysadmin control of federal systems and the killing of USAID showed me he’s acting on that knowledge. Add in his ego, audacity, and desire for vindication, revenge, and a lasting legacy, and you can imagine how big his ultimate goals must really be. Iran will be a step, not a quagmire.
Therefore I’m also confident that the coming months will include numerous domestic bombshells to win the midterms. Trump is totally serious about Medicaid fraud, the stolen 2020 election, ActBlue, and all the other scandals. He only needs one or two to catch on with the public and make it through the courts. And if any of it connects with foreign countries, that means treason. Think of all the data Trump has from FBI files and burn bags, from his AI techbro billionaire friends, from newly cooperative Venezuelans, and maybe soon from Cuban and Iranian archives. The “Bondi is doing nothing” view will be gone by the fall, along with the national chances of the Democrats.
Doing things right takes time, and things are slowed by the need to work around all the Democrat stay-behinds still in the DoJ. Trump is a showman building suspense, and also wants maximum impact. So I’d say closer to campaign season, but due to their size and number, they’ll start long before October.
Agree. It is interesting that after all this time, when people don’t research it or dig deeply, or carefully ponder the matter, that they like to say he doesn’t have a plan, doesn’t understand anything, and has never accomplished anything.
It’s strange because you’d think that by now people would see him more clearly. Scott Adams wrote about him a decade ago. He’s a patriotic real estate developer, deal maker, and reality TV star who is good at planning and regularly makes brilliant Sun Tzu moves. He sincerely wants to be a hero, but his enemies can only see stupidity, chaos, and evil.
I like the cut of your jib. I'm about 90% on the same page but hesitant to say it from sheer superstition. The lesson is Venezuela, and note that Iran similarly has civilian, secular, democratic institutions in place that can take up the mantle of governance once freed from the heavy hand of double-secret probation in the form of mullah vetoes and IRGC gangsters. Getting from here to there is a non-trivial assignment but the further we zoom out, the more moving parts can be seen aligning to advance multiple concrete & critical goals. International and domestic because the ills of our nation are corrupted through actors across the spheres. Godspeed.
I only feel confident talking about it because I believe Trump has already won the long term battle in classic Sun Tzu ways. I’m not giving away anything that the top levels of the DNC don’t already know. (I’m also not superstitious, and like to think I’m helping rally support online.) Democrats are cooked, can’t publicly admit it, and have no good tools to defend themselves. They know that an overwhelming series of carefully constructed, iron-clad, and headline-grabbing federal cases are headed their way. Democrats have a near-zero chance of winning every case in court, and it will only take one to cripple the entire party. Trump will use the scandals to destroy the entire Democrat brand by linking it to fraud, corruption, and stolen elections.
Have you ever wondered how incredibly different our country would look of just once ONCE the opposition party wasn't trying with every molecule of their being to deny Trump anything? If the judiciary, the legislature, the blue states and particularly the deep state spent 5 minutes thinking and acting on behalf of the United States as a whole the well being of every person in the Western would improve instantly.
This is part of Trump’s strategy. He intentionally draws sharp red lines on controversial issues, but he’s always on the majority side and with a strong legal case. Then he solves them with audacious, decisive action. America First. End fraud. Shrink bureaucracy. Deport illegals. Arrest criminals. Two sexes. Secure elections. Sink drug boats. Snatch Maduro. Defeat the mullahs.
Democrats are forced to oppose it all, which makes them look terrible to voters. Trump is branding MAGA as common sense, tradition, and practical solutions, while forcing Democrats to defend foreigners, fraud, bureaucracy, illegals, criminals, sex deviants, insecure elections, drug cartels, and foreign dictators. It’s a political Sun Tzu/persuasion move.
In the next stage he’ll reinforce the message with indictments about entitlement fraud, campaign finance fraud, election fraud, and more. The scandals will devastate Democrats, causing them to lose power and influence. Many things to improve, and everyone will notice.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is being responded to by 3 amphibious warfare ships setting sail for the region, well equipped and manned (by Marines) for the small boats war they will encounter, a MEU with lots of heavily armed boats, helicopters, F35s and drones. They have trained and rehearsed for exactly this war in this place for decades and 2500 marines backed by the fleet can and will as needed seize the small islands in the Strait Iran uses for bases. The boats, Helicopters drones and planes can also defeat the boat attacks and are trained to fight off swarming 100 small boats attacks with layered defenses.
A MEU isn’t enough to invade Iran before hysteria gets going, nor is it necessary.
On the matter of success;
One might want to look at the goals stated publicly and consistently despite hysterical reporting otherwise.
Our war goals
Destroy Irans missile and drone stockpiles and their production lines to replenish- missile and drone industries. Probably easier to destroy missile production than Drones, but certainly degraded.
Destroy Iran’s army and navy. Largely done.
Destroy Iranian ability to threaten and attack their neighbors, this is being advanced significantly.
Make sure Iran never has a nuclear weapon, this is certainly being progressed aggressively.
These stated goals are made clear and agreed to by all principals from the President, SecWar, VP, Secretary of State.
Note if Iran has 408KG of 60% uranium this goal is problematic, it’s just possible to construct a crude bomb that can’t be delivered by missile but could be made (if my reading is correct) into 3-5 Hiroshima/Nagasaki sized bombs. Uncertain.
Iran is an intelligent enemy that has been preparing for war for decades. Their key leadership civilian and military has 4 successors each. The IGRC is a force, law, military, economy and police unto themselves. They are capable of continuing to fight if cut off from command. No decapitation strike is conclusive although certainly disruptive.
Iran’s defenses against war and especially ground invasion are their Mosaic doctrine of 31 defensive districts capable and empowered to keep fighting in the absence of orders or command, that leaves the matter of fighting with what weapons? If their missiles and drones are defeated (UAE has a 90% interception rate) depleted and their production destroyed then a major war aim is accomplished.
If we reopen the Strait - and we have before- a major card has been played by Iran and they have not many left.
Americans should note that we have enormous energy reserves and the pain of less oil will be felt most keenly by foreigners , including Iran and China by the way.
(A possible exception is California who have by their own government made themselves a petroleum island because of their fashionable eco-blend, that and getting rid of refineries a fragile and expensive one, and less foreign oil shipments do hurt CA).
Iran would be a very tough ground war and occupation to invade…
Which we 🇺🇸 have absolutely no need to do nor have we made it a goal, nor sent forces in numbers to do so.
Decades of investment, building up and arming of the GCC - Gulf Cooperation Council- have paid dividends now, Iranian missile and drone attacks haven’t fractured the GCC, indeed decades of preparation and the Abraham accords have united the region against Iran - not that their behavior wasn’t also a motivation.
Iranian previously Hizbollah type strategies to arouse the Shia in Gulf countries hasn’t materialized, an option that probably doesn’t exist now.
We face an intelligent but limited enemy whose earlier strategies of the Ring Of Fire around Israel has failed, who faces opponents all around, whose missile and drone attacks strategy is failing and their remaining strategy to close the Strait to force a fracturing of the alliance may soon be reversed without coalition collapse.
They are without allies.
They have some perhaps leverage with the uranium that has cost them so dear, but they dare not and possibly cannot employ as a weapon. Even if they did it’s suicide not a deterrent.
Iran remains too difficult to invade but the point is to destroy their ability to project beyond Iran.
Have you ever talked to someone who works for the California Air Resources Board? What may have started out as good intentions by Reagan to clean toxins out of the Los Angeles basin has devolved into a government agency that operates as a religion with over a thousand air priests, hellbent on casting out anything feom scoiety that they deem as causing pollution. I live 3 miles east of the capitol and some of my neighbors work for CARB, and they are gleeful when they talk about how they be ending the use of combustion engines in California in our lifetime. They view me as a heretic; I drive a 4x4, have a gas lawnmower, use natural gas to heat my house and have a wood fire pit in my backyard. They are the most hypocritical people, literally wishing ill on the poors through gas hikes, and the only way California rights itself is to fire at least half of the State government workers.
Kinda rooting hard against us since you keep saying “our?”
“Our” who?
Our 🇺🇸shit’s working great since January 2025. Worked before but we had the wrong leadership.
If Iran could set its neighbors on fire it would have… Iran wants to survive. They likely will, if they cannot harm past their borders- our stated goal- then whatever they do to themselves is fine.
Thank you! I’ve had to stop listening to Tucker for a bit. Not because of his opinion on the war but his histrionics and lack of information. He’s screeching and only hosting like minded people who believe we are doomed. Way too stressful. He’s behaving like an influencer. Influencers, probably one of the worst things to come out of TikTok/Twitter/Instagram. Ads all dressed up as people who can think.
I am having the exact same experience regarding Tucker. He is only having people in that confirm his biases. It’s the same doom loop over and over again.
The Left tells us the Iranians aren't smart enough to build a nuclear weapon. It's all right-wing propaganda.
BUT they'll tell us Trump has been caught by surprise at the cunning, intelligence and preparedness of the Iranian military in the 14-day "war". AND, just wait until the Iranians roll out those hypersonic missiles and the drone barrage.
Once again, I'll say this. The Left needs more than one mouth, because talking out of both side of the one they've got simply isn't enough.
It’s pretty clear by now that CNN’s raison d'être is to provide fodder for the TDS afflicted…they (and CNN) would root for the downfall of America if it would embarrass Trump!
Why can't we fast forward this damn program? I'm bored and itchy and it's complicated and isn't fapping my dopamine centers in the manner to which I have been rendered accustomed!!!!!!!!
Chris thank you for helping me retain my sanity. If you weren’t commenting I might lose my mind from all the whacked out rambling about just about everything.
THERE YOU GO AGAIN WITH YOUR IRRESPONSIBLE NUANCED TAKES. TIME TO LET THINGS PLAY OUT? GATHER INFORMATION? BALDERDASH! YOU MUST BLEAT A FULL-THROATED CONDEMNATION OF ORANGE MAN BAD, THE IRAN WAR, AND STEAK-AND-LOBSTER HEGSETH POST-HASTE!
Bro, I grew up in the #2 target for Soviet ICBMs. I'm here to tell you that letting Fear Of Muh Nukes affect your thinking goes very badly for most people.
Also, "the Iran death-cult" (?) that I presume you're referring to was emplaced there by the British Empire. If anybody were going to use Muh NukeyBomby, it'd be at the behest of the City of London, which has controlled leadership in all the former Ottoman Empire areas it has occupied, including Iran, especially since William Knox D'Arcy secured the D'Arcy Concession from Iran's shah in 1901...then o my golly goshers just happened to strike black gold 7 years later.
Leading to the formation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, later British Petroleum, later BP. And the rest is petrohistory. Mostly forgotten.
HOW MUCH IS OIL AT THE PUMP TODAY, GOYS? ERMAGERD IT'S UP 20 CENTS--BETTER GET THINGS BACK TO NORMAL/USUAL!!!!!!
The 1953 coup that the US keeps getting 100% of the blame for was a British op that the government wouldn’t fund at the last minute. The US just funded it.
Yeah, I'm 80/20 that the next equilibrium won't be worse than the last. I'm cautiously optimistic on the in-between: it's going to be messy, but there's an awful lot going on to mitigate the mess, seemingly unrelated to the war.
Before April I think the headlines will be Cuba, and the AWFL media outlets will be washing Iran off the front pages for lack of bad(for-Trump) news.
Trump should totally get him some BRAY, RIGHT NOW. Love your essays. They are so sensible.
I mean, my phone is right here, waiting.
I think some of my missed calls are from Trump, so conference me in when you get a ring. I have thoughts.
LoL I'd also like to get one of his ears, even the shot-up one ... 😉🙂
I voted for narcissistic orange man 3 × 4 lack of a better option, which is, of course, sad commentary on our society. I regret voting at all.
And we also regret you voting…
You and I are in the same leaky boat with an idiot at the helm.
What worries me the most about this WAR is that Colonel Douglas Macgregor will stop breathing and tip over in the middle of a podcast.
I feel a Bray should be a cut of steak, maybe a 3” ribeye, two of my fave Costco steaks stack after cooking so there is a char layer in the middle.
Actually that sounds pretty amazing?
My view is that there is gray zone warfare directed at the US being perpetrated by several countries, including Iran, China, Russia, Cuba and until recently Venezuela, and probably more. The summer of 2020 riots were part of it, with financial support and training coming from outside actors, with riots being run like military operations. Drug problems kill more Americans every year than died in the whole of the Vietnam war, and the cartels seem to be in bed with these forces. I think this operation is designed to end this gray zone warfare, and there is probably no desire to take over Iran, only to end their operations that have killed thousands of Americans world wide. (The average Iranians might be happy to see the islamists out of power, but they would certainly fight an invading army. Maybe Zoroastrianism will start replacing Islam.) We are seeing an ongoing operation to end the gray zone warfare; Cartels are being attacked, the border is looking more like a border, Venezuela is being severed from the attacking forces, Cuba is being neutered and might rejoin humanity while China is being squeezed by oil restriction from both the Venezuela and Iran operations. Obviously I don't know how it will turn out.
You are absolutely correct about the gray zone warfare, but as I said in my lengthy comment, I think he will be using all that to go after Democrats and the domestic left. I think I know how it will turn out: huge scandals, lots of indictments (including big names), and historic Democrat defeats in 2026 and 2028.
I hope you’re right.
🤞🙏
We're at a place where I don't know if the first two events be enough to cause historic defeats in 26 and 28, but I certainly hope you're right.
Do you follow Susan Kokinda on Substack, and her colleague Barbara Boyd?
Two awesome elder ladies who have been following these issues since the 1970s...and as somebody raised to view pretty much everything in the world in ways that dovetail perfectly with what they're saying (they're saying what, e.g., my own petroleum-industry-shipbuilding 17th-century-founding-stock fathers would have said about all this), I feel others should know about them.
Sample--Barbara laying out what she sees DJT doing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVHoJ0Nmo2I
It is isomeric with what you're saying about what Will below calls the "all-in-one pincer."
> Maybe Zoroastrianism will start replacing Islam
Maybe. Maybe parts of Islam aren't what we're told.
Maybe those particularly extreme imams were put in power to keep chaos going, permawar from which the Empire of the City of London could profit. I mean, those Rot Childs do love their war industry, and their usury, and using propaganda to gin up tension and division.
Admittedly I'm not big on the whole Abrahamic thing, but everybody knows that The Adversary does like to lie. Even some Muslims I've known recognized that. Men and women not at all like the cartoons being held up for Two Minutes' Hate every three minutes.
Hm.
> Keep us from our hater, O Mazda!
> Perish, O fiendish Druj!
> Perish, O brood of the fiend!
> Perish, O world of the fiend!
> Perish away to the regions of the north, never more to give unto death the living world of the holy spirit!
Yes, I am familiar with them. I wouldn’t say I follow them, but they are quite interesting and no doubt the British have controlled a lot. Much of the American Revolution was about the British trying to control our economics. Besides that, I think there are plenty of other bad actors around the world. It’s like a jungle full of predators, vying with each other, not one big monolithic structure.
Those predators all have the same bankers laundering their money.
Is that the Mazda with the Wanker rotary engine?
Straight, boxer, inline, flat--all Druj.
You're making a case for the all-in-one pincer. Nice
Watch out everybody! Finally some solid logic and truth being spoken here….
That's a good way of describing the global power situation. I think if it as dealing with a passive/aggressive group led by China that's always undermining America. Trump just bitch slapped a couple members of that group, who are dismayed that their big buddies (Russia and China) let them get humiliated.
Zoroastrianism, is that the religion of Zoro? The masked avenger?
Good one
Yes. Outside actors such as the US citizens Soros, Gates, Buffet ...
And some we’ve never heard of.
I will enter the challenge with an extremely confident opinion. Trump would not do this (and in a midterm year) unless he was confident of a quick win. He’s already done one new and remarkably cheap and efficient form of regime change in Venezuela. True, Iran is a bigger, more complex, and bloodier task, but they're highly vulnerable to the air supremacy and digital advantages of the US and Israel. They’re hated by much of their population and most of their neighbors. We can choke their economy, destroy IRCG assets with precise strikes, and keep offing mullahs until a surrender, a popular uprising, or some combination. Few if any boots on the ground will be needed.
Trump used to plan big, multi-year real estate deals with lots of moving parts, so I’m sure he's approaching all this in the same way. Venezuela, Iran, and soon Cuba are part of the big picture, connecting not just China and Russia, but to the US and international left, which is in turn intertwined with the Democratic Party and the Deep State. He’s got a bunch of smart advisors who know and hate the left, so they must know this. The quick DOGE sysadmin control of federal systems and the killing of USAID showed me he’s acting on that knowledge. Add in his ego, audacity, and desire for vindication, revenge, and a lasting legacy, and you can imagine how big his ultimate goals must really be. Iran will be a step, not a quagmire.
Therefore I’m also confident that the coming months will include numerous domestic bombshells to win the midterms. Trump is totally serious about Medicaid fraud, the stolen 2020 election, ActBlue, and all the other scandals. He only needs one or two to catch on with the public and make it through the courts. And if any of it connects with foreign countries, that means treason. Think of all the data Trump has from FBI files and burn bags, from his AI techbro billionaire friends, from newly cooperative Venezuelans, and maybe soon from Cuban and Iranian archives. The “Bondi is doing nothing” view will be gone by the fall, along with the national chances of the Democrats.
The numerous domestic bombshells need to get bombshelling. Have been hearing this for a while.
Doing things right takes time, and things are slowed by the need to work around all the Democrat stay-behinds still in the DoJ. Trump is a showman building suspense, and also wants maximum impact. So I’d say closer to campaign season, but due to their size and number, they’ll start long before October.
Agree. It is interesting that after all this time, when people don’t research it or dig deeply, or carefully ponder the matter, that they like to say he doesn’t have a plan, doesn’t understand anything, and has never accomplished anything.
It’s strange because you’d think that by now people would see him more clearly. Scott Adams wrote about him a decade ago. He’s a patriotic real estate developer, deal maker, and reality TV star who is good at planning and regularly makes brilliant Sun Tzu moves. He sincerely wants to be a hero, but his enemies can only see stupidity, chaos, and evil.
That’s Not Good Enough. You Don’t Have Time. Fuck Your Midterms, TrumpCuck.
YOU FELL FOR IT AGAIN!
I hope it will be carpet bombing and not precision targeting.
I like the cut of your jib. I'm about 90% on the same page but hesitant to say it from sheer superstition. The lesson is Venezuela, and note that Iran similarly has civilian, secular, democratic institutions in place that can take up the mantle of governance once freed from the heavy hand of double-secret probation in the form of mullah vetoes and IRGC gangsters. Getting from here to there is a non-trivial assignment but the further we zoom out, the more moving parts can be seen aligning to advance multiple concrete & critical goals. International and domestic because the ills of our nation are corrupted through actors across the spheres. Godspeed.
I only feel confident talking about it because I believe Trump has already won the long term battle in classic Sun Tzu ways. I’m not giving away anything that the top levels of the DNC don’t already know. (I’m also not superstitious, and like to think I’m helping rally support online.) Democrats are cooked, can’t publicly admit it, and have no good tools to defend themselves. They know that an overwhelming series of carefully constructed, iron-clad, and headline-grabbing federal cases are headed their way. Democrats have a near-zero chance of winning every case in court, and it will only take one to cripple the entire party. Trump will use the scandals to destroy the entire Democrat brand by linking it to fraud, corruption, and stolen elections.
🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Yes. But watch for the msm screaming to ratchet up accordingly and for those glued to, similarly.
that's a well-earned Democratic brand!
Have you ever wondered how incredibly different our country would look of just once ONCE the opposition party wasn't trying with every molecule of their being to deny Trump anything? If the judiciary, the legislature, the blue states and particularly the deep state spent 5 minutes thinking and acting on behalf of the United States as a whole the well being of every person in the Western would improve instantly.
This is part of Trump’s strategy. He intentionally draws sharp red lines on controversial issues, but he’s always on the majority side and with a strong legal case. Then he solves them with audacious, decisive action. America First. End fraud. Shrink bureaucracy. Deport illegals. Arrest criminals. Two sexes. Secure elections. Sink drug boats. Snatch Maduro. Defeat the mullahs.
Democrats are forced to oppose it all, which makes them look terrible to voters. Trump is branding MAGA as common sense, tradition, and practical solutions, while forcing Democrats to defend foreigners, fraud, bureaucracy, illegals, criminals, sex deviants, insecure elections, drug cartels, and foreign dictators. It’s a political Sun Tzu/persuasion move.
In the next stage he’ll reinforce the message with indictments about entitlement fraud, campaign finance fraud, election fraud, and more. The scandals will devastate Democrats, causing them to lose power and influence. Many things to improve, and everyone will notice.
I’d just love to see it if we didn’t also have to fight our own party. I expect opposition from the Ds, but I’m getting real tired of traitors within.
yes!
I hope he lives to 100 and when he is no longer our wonderful POTUS he can advise the next R administration with his 4D chess.
Trump’s A Cuck And Never Arrests Anyone.
YOU FELL FOR IT AGAIN!
🤞🙏
Maybe. I’m really hoping Trump didn’t catch victory disease after Venezuela.
He has too big of an ego for that.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is being responded to by 3 amphibious warfare ships setting sail for the region, well equipped and manned (by Marines) for the small boats war they will encounter, a MEU with lots of heavily armed boats, helicopters, F35s and drones. They have trained and rehearsed for exactly this war in this place for decades and 2500 marines backed by the fleet can and will as needed seize the small islands in the Strait Iran uses for bases. The boats, Helicopters drones and planes can also defeat the boat attacks and are trained to fight off swarming 100 small boats attacks with layered defenses.
A MEU isn’t enough to invade Iran before hysteria gets going, nor is it necessary.
On the matter of success;
One might want to look at the goals stated publicly and consistently despite hysterical reporting otherwise.
Our war goals
Destroy Irans missile and drone stockpiles and their production lines to replenish- missile and drone industries. Probably easier to destroy missile production than Drones, but certainly degraded.
Destroy Iran’s army and navy. Largely done.
Destroy Iranian ability to threaten and attack their neighbors, this is being advanced significantly.
Make sure Iran never has a nuclear weapon, this is certainly being progressed aggressively.
These stated goals are made clear and agreed to by all principals from the President, SecWar, VP, Secretary of State.
Note if Iran has 408KG of 60% uranium this goal is problematic, it’s just possible to construct a crude bomb that can’t be delivered by missile but could be made (if my reading is correct) into 3-5 Hiroshima/Nagasaki sized bombs. Uncertain.
Iran is an intelligent enemy that has been preparing for war for decades. Their key leadership civilian and military has 4 successors each. The IGRC is a force, law, military, economy and police unto themselves. They are capable of continuing to fight if cut off from command. No decapitation strike is conclusive although certainly disruptive.
Iran’s defenses against war and especially ground invasion are their Mosaic doctrine of 31 defensive districts capable and empowered to keep fighting in the absence of orders or command, that leaves the matter of fighting with what weapons? If their missiles and drones are defeated (UAE has a 90% interception rate) depleted and their production destroyed then a major war aim is accomplished.
If we reopen the Strait - and we have before- a major card has been played by Iran and they have not many left.
Americans should note that we have enormous energy reserves and the pain of less oil will be felt most keenly by foreigners , including Iran and China by the way.
(A possible exception is California who have by their own government made themselves a petroleum island because of their fashionable eco-blend, that and getting rid of refineries a fragile and expensive one, and less foreign oil shipments do hurt CA).
Iran would be a very tough ground war and occupation to invade…
Which we 🇺🇸 have absolutely no need to do nor have we made it a goal, nor sent forces in numbers to do so.
Decades of investment, building up and arming of the GCC - Gulf Cooperation Council- have paid dividends now, Iranian missile and drone attacks haven’t fractured the GCC, indeed decades of preparation and the Abraham accords have united the region against Iran - not that their behavior wasn’t also a motivation.
Iranian previously Hizbollah type strategies to arouse the Shia in Gulf countries hasn’t materialized, an option that probably doesn’t exist now.
We face an intelligent but limited enemy whose earlier strategies of the Ring Of Fire around Israel has failed, who faces opponents all around, whose missile and drone attacks strategy is failing and their remaining strategy to close the Strait to force a fracturing of the alliance may soon be reversed without coalition collapse.
They are without allies.
They have some perhaps leverage with the uranium that has cost them so dear, but they dare not and possibly cannot employ as a weapon. Even if they did it’s suicide not a deterrent.
Iran remains too difficult to invade but the point is to destroy their ability to project beyond Iran.
That’s the stated goal all along.
All of that makes sense. Just wrote about the oil reserves problem with special reference to California:
https://thefederalist.com/2026/03/13/the-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-worse-because-of-dems-disastrous-energy-policy/
Have you ever talked to someone who works for the California Air Resources Board? What may have started out as good intentions by Reagan to clean toxins out of the Los Angeles basin has devolved into a government agency that operates as a religion with over a thousand air priests, hellbent on casting out anything feom scoiety that they deem as causing pollution. I live 3 miles east of the capitol and some of my neighbors work for CARB, and they are gleeful when they talk about how they be ending the use of combustion engines in California in our lifetime. They view me as a heretic; I drive a 4x4, have a gas lawnmower, use natural gas to heat my house and have a wood fire pit in my backyard. They are the most hypocritical people, literally wishing ill on the poors through gas hikes, and the only way California rights itself is to fire at least half of the State government workers.
CARB also spends money on interventions outside the state that may not work. https://forestpolicypub.com/2026/03/13/trees-burn-up-even-ones-enrolled-in-carbon-offset-programs/
Excellent article. Poor California! Maybe the governor can run a bucket brigade to Iran for oil. But, remember, they are going all electric!
Look at Utah for the reverse.
The plan is to turn Iran into another ungovernable hell-hole such as Libya.
You are assuming that our overpriced and underperforming systems will work as advertised. Looking at the Ukraine, Yemen and Israel, I doubt they will.
Taking some islands isn't going to open the strait. What it will do is provide Iran with targets.
And if those marines launch from a Gulf state Iran will probably burn that state's oil and desalinization infrastructure as a lesson.
When the Gulf Arab sheiks run out of food and stipends for their people, the people will turn on them.
I don't think Iran's air defenses have been appreciably degraded. If the ill-conceived landing takes place we are going to find out.
Kinda rooting hard against us since you keep saying “our?”
“Our” who?
Our 🇺🇸shit’s working great since January 2025. Worked before but we had the wrong leadership.
If Iran could set its neighbors on fire it would have… Iran wants to survive. They likely will, if they cannot harm past their borders- our stated goal- then whatever they do to themselves is fine.
Plan Libya or Syria is fine too.
Thank you! I’ve had to stop listening to Tucker for a bit. Not because of his opinion on the war but his histrionics and lack of information. He’s screeching and only hosting like minded people who believe we are doomed. Way too stressful. He’s behaving like an influencer. Influencers, probably one of the worst things to come out of TikTok/Twitter/Instagram. Ads all dressed up as people who can think.
“Influencers“ and “activists“ are the two millstones around the neck of western civilization (dragging us all down).
When you have no real info, he reaches down and pulls it out of his ass.
If the polls are correct and 95% maga is with Trump then you are watching panic.
I am having the exact same experience regarding Tucker. He is only having people in that confirm his biases. It’s the same doom loop over and over again.
The Left tells us the Iranians aren't smart enough to build a nuclear weapon. It's all right-wing propaganda.
BUT they'll tell us Trump has been caught by surprise at the cunning, intelligence and preparedness of the Iranian military in the 14-day "war". AND, just wait until the Iranians roll out those hypersonic missiles and the drone barrage.
Once again, I'll say this. The Left needs more than one mouth, because talking out of both side of the one they've got simply isn't enough.
That foray into Venezuela, A LONG time , maybe a month ago...
One of the most successful military ventures ever... no US casualties (to speak of) all objective met, took I dunno, HOURS?
Bet the critics were all on board with that one too... I bet...
Or maybe the strongest constant force in the universe is Trump hatred.
It’s pretty clear by now that CNN’s raison d'être is to provide fodder for the TDS afflicted…they (and CNN) would root for the downfall of America if it would embarrass Trump!
It's like you've never been on the internet before.
The Internet -- is that the one with the pixels?
It’s the thing that Al Gore invented…but you look at it through the thing with the pixels.😉
Wow, the information superhighway. Takes me right back to the '90s.
@14.4kb speed.
No way am I spending $150 to go to 56k, that is crazy money!
I can still hear that noise the modem made when connecting. Now I'm thinking about adding a new ringtone...
It's been 30 minutes, are we there yet?
Why can't we fast forward this damn program? I'm bored and itchy and it's complicated and isn't fapping my dopamine centers in the manner to which I have been rendered accustomed!!!!!!!!
Oh look! Sportsball!
Chris thank you for helping me retain my sanity. If you weren’t commenting I might lose my mind from all the whacked out rambling about just about everything.
The Western Coalition won the Iraqi War, but lost the peace. Americans are extraordinarily bad at that.
Exactly the part that worries me.
It’s what comes after Trump that is concerning to me.
Michelle Wu, the current mayor of Boston, will be the next President of the United States. She will love you long time.
TRUTH!
Try to figure out a way to make Bray's common sense contagious.
Start in Wuhan
I thought they named that wet market after you already! :)
- Hey, buddy were's your mask?
- On my dick!
Chris,
THERE YOU GO AGAIN WITH YOUR IRRESPONSIBLE NUANCED TAKES. TIME TO LET THINGS PLAY OUT? GATHER INFORMATION? BALDERDASH! YOU MUST BLEAT A FULL-THROATED CONDEMNATION OF ORANGE MAN BAD, THE IRAN WAR, AND STEAK-AND-LOBSTER HEGSETH POST-HASTE!
I’m extremely certain this is true.
Im cautiously pessimistic
I'd be exceedingly pessimistic about the Iran death-cult being in possession of a nuclear weapon - so there's that, too.
Bro, I grew up in the #2 target for Soviet ICBMs. I'm here to tell you that letting Fear Of Muh Nukes affect your thinking goes very badly for most people.
Also, "the Iran death-cult" (?) that I presume you're referring to was emplaced there by the British Empire. If anybody were going to use Muh NukeyBomby, it'd be at the behest of the City of London, which has controlled leadership in all the former Ottoman Empire areas it has occupied, including Iran, especially since William Knox D'Arcy secured the D'Arcy Concession from Iran's shah in 1901...then o my golly goshers just happened to strike black gold 7 years later.
Leading to the formation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, later British Petroleum, later BP. And the rest is petrohistory. Mostly forgotten.
HOW MUCH IS OIL AT THE PUMP TODAY, GOYS? ERMAGERD IT'S UP 20 CENTS--BETTER GET THINGS BACK TO NORMAL/USUAL!!!!!!
https://www.mohammadmossadegh.com/
The 1953 coup that the US keeps getting 100% of the blame for was a British op that the government wouldn’t fund at the last minute. The US just funded it.
Yeah, I'm 80/20 that the next equilibrium won't be worse than the last. I'm cautiously optimistic on the in-between: it's going to be messy, but there's an awful lot going on to mitigate the mess, seemingly unrelated to the war.
Before April I think the headlines will be Cuba, and the AWFL media outlets will be washing Iran off the front pages for lack of bad(for-Trump) news.