Extremely Confident Opinions About the Iran War Are Still Unjustified
I remain ambivalent and skeptical about the war with Iran, after a long series of American wars in the Middle East that produced unintended results. I’m inclined to doubt that it’ll be successful, I’m not at all certain that it was a good idea, and I simultaneously see the extraordinary operational competence in the American military effort. Maybe they’ll pull it off. Maybe they won’t. Maybe military success will produce political failure, as it did in Libya. But this kind of analysis, to borrow an example from the CNN website yesterday…
…is just masturbation. It doesn’t mean anything, and it can’t. On the thirteenth day of war, victory is not yet secured! What does it MEAN?!?!? (“Two Weeks After Pearl Harbor Attack, Empire of Japan Still Undefeated.”) The war descends into a long, devastating grind, as it enters its…third week.
Similarly, and sticking with CNN headlines:
No single fact about a war with Iran is more obvious than the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which a hamster could figure out if you showed it a map. Note the dates on these sample Google search results:
Of course they knew Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz, and probably succeed for a while, a topic the Pentagon’s war planners have been gaming out for decades. But a temporary closure in the second week of a war isn’t a disaster. The third month of a closure very much will be, and the sixth month would be devastating. The “instant pudding” concept of war is a waste of oxygen. If the tankers are moving through the strait in a week or two, the impact will pass. Maybe that won’t happen, and then we’ll begin to see that a sustained crisis is possible. Maybe wait ten minutes before dooming all of humanity on social media. Note that I’m not saying the closure of the Strait of Hormuz isn’t a crisis. Rather, I’m saying that there’s at least a chance that it turns out to be a limited and temporary crisis, and one that we recover from quickly.
A bunch of smart people are arguing, credibly, that the closure proves the US Navy is too small, and needs frigates like the Senate needs dignity. See also:
Similarly, all objectives can’t be achieved simultaneously. One thing happens, and then another thing happens. “Oh, so they’re focusing on Northern Africa? Great, I guess they’re not even gonna try to fight the Germans in Europe at all!” The fact that some things haven’t happened doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t happen.
A bunch of things are happening 9,000 miles away. I don’t know what it means. Continue to be skeptical about certainty. Be skeptical about hysterical pronunciations of doom, and be wary of complete confidence in a certain victory. In the alternative universe in which Donald Trump told everyone in the situation room that we’re not going to war with Iran unless Chris Bray is on board — “I said GET ME BRAY, right now!” — we probably wouldn’t be at war with Iran. But now I’m just watching and waiting. We’ll see. It’s not necessary to think anyone knows what it all means.
Trump should totally get him some BRAY, RIGHT NOW. Love your essays. They are so sensible.
My view is that there is gray zone warfare directed at the US being perpetrated by several countries, including Iran, China, Russia, Cuba and until recently Venezuela, and probably more. The summer of 2020 riots were part of it, with financial support and training coming from outside actors, with riots being run like military operations. Drug problems kill more Americans every year than died in the whole of the Vietnam war, and the cartels seem to be in bed with these forces. I think this operation is designed to end this gray zone warfare, and there is probably no desire to take over Iran, only to end their operations that have killed thousands of Americans world wide. (The average Iranians might be happy to see the islamists out of power, but they would certainly fight an invading army. Maybe Zoroastrianism will start replacing Islam.) We are seeing an ongoing operation to end the gray zone warfare; Cartels are being attacked, the border is looking more like a border, Venezuela is being severed from the attacking forces, Cuba is being neutered and might rejoin humanity while China is being squeezed by oil restriction from both the Venezuela and Iran operations. Obviously I don't know how it will turn out.