"Don’t give the Americans time to park hundreds of warplanes next to your country..."
This seems to be like the saying, "don't attack Russia late in the year, because Winter is Coming." For some reason, no matter how many historical examples exist as to why this is a stupid idea, nations keep doing it.
Xi and Putin can’t hire the most qualified folks, they can only hire the people who won’t use their military against them. It’s the fatal flaw in all dictatorships.
"The prevalence of consanguineous unions was 46.7% of the total marriages. First-cousin unions were the most frequenttype, comprising 30.2% of total marital unions." (2024) https://brieflands.com/journals/gct/articles/147204
"The prevalence of cousin marriage in the Muslim world stands out (Bittles and Black 2010; Hamamy 2012), in particular that between children of brothers (Korotayev 2000). In Pakistan (Hussain and Bittles 1998) and Saudi Arabia (el-Hazmi et al. 1995), the rate of consanguineous marriage3 has been found to approach 60 percent; in other Muslim countries, rates fall in the 20–50 percent range." (2018) https://www.columbia.edu/~le93/Edlund18.pdf
It's hugely correlated, of course. In some places the government helps with genetic testing if requested, but given (much) higher rates among poorer, less educated, more rural pop that may not make a dent where most needed. The literature talks about 'culture' but patterns suggest the driving forces are economic (conserving resources within an extended family) bolstered by religious/state permission to treat offspring as household resources that can be traded for advantage.
Thank you for this interesting information. On a related note, I can´t help but notice that the prevalence of step-sibling, step-parent porn content is approaching one-hundred percent on my phone. Well, maybe I could help it.
Good observation - yes winter does come early in Russia. Winter starts in mid-August there. I was there in 1977 traveling for several months. I had an attack of appendicitis and had to have it removed, it was already rupturing. I was taken to Botkin Hospital in Moscow to have it removed. I remember looking outside the window and seeing that it was already starting to turn to winter. I had been in the hospital for several weeks and was told that the weather would start to cool down and sure enough it did.
YES and they are supposed to know that,,its called scouting the enemy which includes terrain and weather...Would it be a good idea to launch an attack in the middle of a hurricane? A Blizzard? Well put those two together and you have winter in Russia
Actually the original German plan was to attack Russia in May, but Hitler diverted troops to help the Italians in Southeast Europe, delaying the attack by several weeks. Might have helped, but maybe not.
Russia is like one of Taylor Sheridan's characters in 1923 said about Montana, "They say in Montana there are only 3 seasons, June, July, and winter."
fair enough, but it's also reasonable to assume that if Italy is on your side, you will ultimately lose and Italy will switch sides and declare victory with the winners.
LOL! The Axis alliance was a strange one, mostly based on we all want things we ain't got. Let's get together and worry about splitting it up after we win. The US and the English Empire were a much more compatible fit with the same language and somewhat similar cultures. Also both were huge transoceanic sea powers. The USSR was, of course, an alliance of convenience, and we all know how well that worked out.
> Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered.
The effects of such major solar/electrical activity on earth's weather patterns cannot be overstated. But they can be observed, again and again, after the fact.
Space weather--how the Sun receives and transmits electromagnetic energy from The Vast Beyond--is the single most important factor in how goes anything bigly here on earth. And many smol things as well, like the love lives of little gnats n bees, and the doings of actinomycetes soil bacteria networks (electrical networks, after all).
We can bet that DJT's team has learned a lot about all this since the Germans set out to stop the central banks'/City of London's darling pet Bolsheviki that sad winter.
We can bet that many of the Adversarial forces know a lot about it now as well.
We laugh at ancient sun worshippers. But they knew how important it was to keep aligned with, and respectful of, Helios.
Alcohol and cocaine are the drugs we know Gruesome has abused in his past. Now, every time he becomes extra-erratic, extra-megalomaniacal, and/or extra-grandiose, observers will pop up who amusingly say, "That cocaine is a hell of a drug," implying that Gov Gav has fallen off the wagon. Again.
The Germans’ first mistake was to think that Russia 2.0 was going to be a repeat of 1914-1917, and assuming that their successes in Poland, Benelux, and France would translate completely to a vastly bigger nation with more than twice the population. They also hadn’t made good their losses in vehicles and aircraft from those campaigns and the Battle of Britain.
A lot of stars needed to align perfectly for Operation Barbarossa to work. They didn’t.
Yeah, I was on leave visiting my parents during Desert Shield and they’d bought into the “elite” hype. I told them to not believe it, that it would be a slaughter the other way. A couple weeks later Desert Storm was over within hours. Career Air Force so I knew what our capabilities were.
Note how the success in Venezuela has been ignored as Maduro’s girl Delcy Rodriguez is now praising Trump and doing our bidding. Funny how the threat of a visit from US Special Forces in the middle of the night will get folks to listen to us.
Here is a much overlooked short clip of Trump dealing with the Taliban. You can be guaranteed that the exact same thing happened with Delcy Rodriguez after the Maduro raid. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RPzXbmFYS-E
On a similar note: all the pundits are claiming that Trump / Netanyahu haven’t thought through an end game for the war. I find this not credible. Both countries have had decades to wargame this conflict and Trump in particular knows his legacy and the future of MAGA rides on this being successful. I don’t think Trump has ever shown suicidal recklessness so I posit we will see some sort of transition to am Iranian non-Islamic state at the end of this.
Heard the same talk here in canada yesterday, i said why on earth would trump tell us what the plan or end game is as that would also be telling the Iranians.
Why assume there is no plan just because we don't know what the plan is?
I see a methodical degradation of regime capabilities, which sounds like a plan.
As I recall Trump said this repeatedly when campaigning. That is, about the stupidity of broadcasting when, where, and how the U.S. would attack the enemy. A good example of Trumpian common-sense thinking regarding war plans that resonated with the thoughts of common-sense people who heard it.
If nothing else he is sober his whole life no alcohol or drugs,,so he has a lifetime of real reflection also the perspective of loss,,he owns a ton of property so knows the pain,,hes playing with real,,not fake. He sees America as home like his house and he will fight to keep it safe and nice and also for his family..People who go through their whole lives never turning to substances,,know massive perspective and gain much character by suffering through and being stronger at the other end...I trust him.
One of the biggest indicators of the, excuse me, dumbassification and degradation of the populace is how many people cannot look at this man, and--whether or not they like him, or agree with particular points/approaches--see that he's operating on another level than anything witnessed in the "postwar" era. And how lucky we are to have this on OUR side.
I feel sad for them, missing out on a helluva moment/juncture in human history. Trying to thwart it, to stay mired in the garbage of the past 80 years (plus). They've been systematically, deliberately steeped in self-hatred...and that is another piece of DJT's genius as--as Dawn puts it just above--a sober, solid, real man who reaches into people's best, motivating them at that level.
It's hard to feel much but embarassment for them as they react to excellence, vision, and history-arc-bending invitation (THEY TOO ARE INVITED!!!) with the most tawdry, debased/debasing words and actions, clinging to those who debase them with that ugly programming. Embracing their degradation.
His strategic vision is on display for all to see, but the Uniparty TDS crowd is willfully blind and says the opposite of what we see with our own eyesbecause they want their grift to continue. Them vs. Us. Insiders vs. The People. https://xcancel.com/catturd2/status/2029577996353307077#m
"On a similar note: all the pundits are claiming that Trump / Netanyahu haven’t thought through an end game for the war."
True, but maybe that's because Trump and Rubio know that such planning is fragile in the chaotic situation that ensues and understands that nimbleness is more important than planning. (How'd that Iraq War succession planning go for you, George W?)
There's a reason the Russians got rid of that cavitating shit. they first came out with it in the early 80s, and I was on submarines from the 80s through the 00s. We laughed at that silly thing, and we still do. Russia cut their losses and quit wasting money on it, then to recoup some, they sold it to their idiot cousins the Iranians.
Russia, as a rule, never gets rid of anything. Proof of that, is that they are now using T 34s on the front lines... (the fact that that's all they got left is irrelevant, the point is, they kept them.) So if they got rid of something, there's a reason: It's shit.
Think about it. Less than three years ago, Chris was writing about the U.S. military's poorly planned and ultimately doomed effort to build a landing dock on the Gazan shore. What has changed since then is leadership--a new Commander in Chief, a new Sec'y of the Dept. of War and a new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
I think there are lessons being learned by many. Not sure if Russia is capable of learning them since it hasn't learned much from 4 years fighting in Ukraine, but the Chicoms might be able to.
Might. But I'm guessing not, because the fundamental ones are about military leadership and institutional trust and the commissars can't accept them.
But yes some basics are that a) the US and Israel (and other US allies like Japan) have amazingly good toys that are way better than the Temu versions from West Taiwan and b) when the US want's it can project overwhelming force.
There were numerous lies told about Ukraine/Russia war. Russia actually ran circles around Ukraine, as their leader Zelensky is a moron. LOTS of Ukrainian soldiers were killed, not nearly as many Russians were. Ukraine in fact now has no one left to fight their war and started drafting women and old people into that war some years ago. Psychopaths were in charge of military ops and the Ukraine and contrary to popular belief, psychopaths are actually stupid compared to the average person. This is one reason why Trump/U.S. military is running circles around the enemy and the invasions we do are very short-lived.
... numerous lies told. Let's use the active voice. Most of the media and most of the pundits told numerous lies, wished-it-to-be-true, about the Russians and Ukraine because they bought what auto-pen was selling and wanted to prop him up. Most of the American public believed those lies. This is why few understand why Trump and US military are running circles and invasions are short-lived.
very true, but there can be no argument that vaunted Russian military after five years is still tied up fighting a war against a contiguous neighbor that is one fourth its size.
I hear you; I also read recently that the war is actually not still going on but for some reason Russia wants to make it look that way. I do know that Ukraine had at least 39 hidden biohazard labs which needed to be found and destroyed and also it was a HUGE center for child trafficking which needed to be destroyed. Also lots of Nazis, who were the real rulers of Ukraine. They went back there in 1950s and never left. In 2014 they took over Ukraine govt. If you look at videos or pictures of Ukraine that Ukrainians have taken and posted (I did), you would see lots of swastikas on flags, military uniforms etc. All of that would have taken a very long time to clean out. I also read about 2 yrs ago that Ukraine had no military age men left to fight in that war and that they were drafting old men and women, also even pregnant women. IOW, they were very desperate. I don't know what's going on there now, but dealing with all that would take quite awhile and they may be still doing that. It seems Russia took down Ukraine in a very short time but after that they have had a lot to clean out. I do know you do not want to mess with the Russians when it comes to war.
The issue with western military ops is not technical, it's political. China can afford to lose fifty ships for every one the US can because the US media and public can make a fuss and the Chinese can just build bigger internment camps. If Russia really is losing 1,000+ men a day (which I doubt, to be honest), I'm not sure that's something we would tolerate. It would be a very tough sell - like, national survival levels - for western nations to accept that I think.
"The one with the rifle shoots! The one without follows him! When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots!"
America is unique in the world in that we deprecate our weapon systems. I know this firsthand. Because we don't want to give away how powerful and capable our weapon systems are, we actually release what amounts to public misinformation underplaying their capabilities. We have public critiques of flaws or gaps in our war machines. Every other country boasts about "super weapons" and capabilities they don't actually have.
If only we had a President who was willing to use our singular capacities to destroy those who would destroy us..., oh wait, we do.
good point, but I think its more complicated than that. If you look to the 60's, the US population was lied to repeatedly about being way behind in missile tech compared to the Soviets. The reason was funding concerns for expansion of defense industrial complex. Then look at the fall of the Soviet Union which was built up over decades as a huge threat. The intelligence agencies gave zero warning about their fragility. The point is there's big money in building up the external threats and raising fears.... Wait, Covid hysteria has entered the chat.
During Vietnam, I did six years in the Navy. Did 5 patrols on 2 different missile subs, or “boats” as they are called. That was a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. But even THEN, we had some seriously frightening shit.
As many have posted here, when the United States is led by a fearless-focused, circumspect leader, we are epic warriors. Sadly, Vietnam was not such a time as this.
Regrettably, our leaders during Viet Nam, Afghanistan & Iraq lost sight of the role of the U.S. military, which is to kill people, break their shit (both as quickly as possible), and leave. We persuaded almost no one local of anything.
I would desperately love to know what the U.S. game plan for Iran is for 5 minutes after the end of “breaking their 💩.”
Now that we (supposedly) have 100% air supremacy, we need to start para-dropping hundreds (or thousands) of pallets of AK-47s & ammo to give the civilians a chance against the 150K members of IRGC & other armed regime dead-enders.
Wow those Supercavitating-expialidocious torpedoes sure are....sorry, forgot. Got lost in that thicket of "expert" analysis. I, of course, shall now call them the Dick van Dyke Torpedoes.
We haven't seen any Iranian submarines yet, so we can't really say what their impact might be. But the Iranians are not stupid. They very likely understand that sinking a carrier will create a very strong impulse in the US to go nuclear. That would be ironic, given it is what all this is ostensibly about, but no sane person or nation wants to be the new message the US sends to the rest of the world. Even insane people mostly want to live.
The US is highly unlikely to go nuclear. A nuclear bomb is an indiscriminate, wide-area weapon that mainly kills civilian non-combatants. The aim of the war is to liberate those civilian non-combatants. On top of that, a nuclear attack on Iran would give Putin permission to do the same to Ukraine and various European targets.
I hope you're right. But when Kennedy spoke so eloquently about living our lives without fear of devastation, what he didn't say was that the USSR was the major recipient of the message of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, and they lived their lives in fear of a nuclear first strike from the West, for decades. Because they got the message, loud and clear.
Bush 2 changing the doctrine to include "pre-emptive nuclear war" was another message of the same kind, sent precisely because most of the people who received the first message were dead. Today almost all of them are dead. I have no doubt there is a faction of the MIC complex that thinks the message needs to be sent again. A kind of hybrid Ledeen/Nuclear doctrine.
Wrong maybe in the technical specifics...but not the human continuities.
I grew up in the #2 target for Soviet ICBMs. We were still doing duck and cover drills in the schools in the late '70s. Then what "Ivan" didn't destroy, "deindustrialization" (thanks to the City of London) did.
I came to terms with the resulting Doom Trauma in the Punk '80s. Or think I did. (Except for maybe four instances since, the Nuke Doom nightmares stopped.)
Today I have much bigger concerns about DEWs, which are a lot easier for bad actors to build than nukes. As Mike notes, nukes--at least as presented to our understanding--are sloppy instruments of terror. The precision command of electromagnetic standing waves is a whole nuther universe of malevolence/destruction. And the "Russians" (meaning Soviets) were certainly holding their own in that set of developments.
Most days I give thanks that it is not my lot to be one of the Guardians who know way more about this than anyone should have to...never mind have to figure out what to do about it.
So the Iranians are playing a crafty game of “wait until they wipe out 99% of our military, THEN we have them”! If they could sink a carrier, they would have tried already. The build up of forces wasn’t a surprise, it happened over weeks. The Iranians had time to position a sub (or subs) and hide some hypersonic missiles along the coast, but obviously didn’t, because they would have used them if they had. I’m no military expert, but giving the enemy a chance to destroy your best weapons before you try to use them is dumb.
why are the Iranians attacking other muslim countries, what to they hope to gain by bombing Dubai,,that would only piss me off as alot of wealth was spent on building Dubai to be an international destination not just a Middle eastern attraction
Three things. Those countries have an American military presence no matter how slight, I believe the countries they've attacked are Sunni majority unlike the Iranian Shia regime, and last, their command and control structure has been so degraded that these shots are likely done at the local level.
If those behind the launches are smart, they fired everything they could and then vamoosed before the inevitable retaliation came to wipe out the source of the missile launches, because they know that by firing they just gave away their positions.
The US says it has already sunk some Iranian subs. My strong belief is that any Iranian sub that is left is going to be detected and sunk well before it gets close to a US carrier.
And, while it is true that Hegseth has only been in office for a year, this really ought to have been a priority. No Shahads won't hurt carriers, but they can absolutely put the hurt in a lot of stuff that is not so well defended
A US Navy commander was effectively banished for sinking a carrier in a Straits of Hormuz wargame scenario over 20 years ago, using a small boat fleet to overwhelm the automated defenses. As one writer put it 20 years before that:
"the message was clear; do not embarrass the powerful. The napalm said it all."
Such reactions do not give one confidence that lessons have been learned and weapons and tactics adjusted accordingly.
Especially after the Ukraine experience, the DoW still has not visibly altered its corrupt white elephant weapons procurement programs to focus on low-cost swarms of either offensive or defensive capabilities ... where that leads is obvious to any who care to look. The major strategic benefit of proxy wars, whatever their immediate objectives may be, whatever anyone thinks of their legality or morality, is that they are *current* weapons and tactics proving grounds. But if the only lesson the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex ever learns is that more expensive and fragile weapons systems are more profitable for them, then strategic defeat is only matter of time.
But in you opening space for chthonic rational discourse, you invite in whole people, some of whom bring many years of pent-up frustration/hurt/anger censored/silenced elsewhere. There is so much Borne Trauma...several generations now. Those who inflict it as a means of power/control have made every succeeding generation of it more devious, deeper striking, more silenced.
I used to think that discursive Nerf combat could help...but then there was the "covid" psyop, showing just how far the Adversarials were willing to go to inject pain, loss, fear, etc., into souls.
(And miss me with the religion thing. The biggest masktards, jabstabbers, floor-arrow-pointers, and Stasi Karens I and my darling encountered were among evangelicals and Catholics. We knew evangelicals who were enthusiastically building "covid" concentration camps. We knew Catholics who smugly watched staffers get fired for refusing stabs, then never bothered following up with them to make sure their kids were fed and housed. There is no god but Pharma, and Fauci is his profit!)
We have lived through a time when identity categories license some people to commit any crime, and still call themselves victims.
Many people who would reject that when the category is "trans activist" or "anti racist" are just dandy with it, when the identity is one they choose to privilege/defend.
I sense that Scott's frustration, however ill expressed, derives from that. It's a problem still festering in the vitals of the body politic. I'd guess that for every "f-u" he vents, there are a hundred more he must swallow on a daily basis. We need some praxis on what to do about that.
Yes the Iranians are not stupid; however, the Iranians who are fundamentalist Moslems who support the ayatollah ARE stupid. They have made some really dumb moves. At this point. all their leaders are gone, yet they are still running around on their motorcycles trying to terrorize the public. They aren't succeeding and the rest of the Iranians who never liked the ayatollah are laughing at them. This info comes from Iranians themselves. They ayatollah minions are pretty well finished and this was announced last night.
As for nuclear weapons, no I don't think Trump would use them, he wants to end nuclear weapons and dropping them in Iran would obliterate tons of people. I've noticed that he does everything he can to save lives of citizens of the countries he has gone into to take out corrupt leaders. He tries to save as many lives as possible when it comes to the citizens of other countries and our own military.
They understand that sinking a US Navy carrier requires being able to Sink a US Navy carrier and very much would love to sink a US Navy carrier and will do so as soon as they can figure out how to sink a US Navy carrier.
Iran's 'Hoot' torpedo, based upon the Russian-made export model VA-111 Shkval-E cavitating torpedo, which can ostensibly reach 200 knots, is not a perfect weapon, (although I agree with you that the naval aircraft carrier's heydays are now much like those of the old-style battleship...over and almost done with), since their chief asset (ultra-high underwater speed) actually works against them. Consider the following serious drawbacks of the Russian Shkvals:
1. Maneuverability and Control
Traditional torpedoes use fins to steer, but fins are useless inside a gas bubble because they have no water to "grip."
The "Wall" Problem: To turn, the torpedo must tilt, but if it tilts too far, the tail or body hits the wall of the water cavity (called "planing"). This creates massive, asymmetrical drag that can cause the torpedo to tumble or break apart.
Vectoring Challenges: Steering usually requires complex thrust vectoring (moving the rocket nozzle) or pivoting the nose cavitator, both of which are mechanically difficult to execute at such high speeds.
2. Guidance and Sensing (The "Blindness" Issue)
This is perhaps the biggest tactical hurdle.
Acoustic Noise: Supercavitating torpedoes are powered by rockets and generate a massive amount of noise from the collapsing bubble. This deafens the torpedo’s own sonar sensors.
Signal Blockage: The gas-water interface of the bubble reflects and refracts sonar signals, making it nearly impossible for the torpedo to "see" its target while at high speed. Consequently, most are "fire-and-forget" weapons that travel in a straight line.
3. Short Range and Fuel Efficiency
Maintaining a supercavitation bubble requires immense energy.
Drag vs. Speed: While the bubble reduces skin friction, the energy required to vaporize water or pump exhaust gases to the nose to maintain that bubble is enormous.
Fuel Constraints: Because they use rocket motors instead of propellers, they burn through fuel rapidly. This limits their effective range to a few kilometers, whereas modern conventional torpedoes (like the Mark 48) can travel dozens of kilometers.
4. Stealth and Detection
A supercavitating torpedo is anything but "silent and deep."
Loudness: They are incredibly loud, giving the target immediate notice that a launch has occurred.
The "Wake" Problem: The massive bubble and rocket exhaust leave a very visible trail in the water, making the launch platform (the submarine) easy to locate and counter-attack.
5. Depth Limitations
The pressure of the surrounding water increases with depth. The deeper the torpedo goes, the harder it is to maintain the gas bubble. Most supercavitating designs are restricted to relatively shallow depths, which limits their versatility in deep-sea engagements.
Russia is reportedly developing newer versions of the Shkval that address these glaring deficiencies, but the technology is both tricky and costly to achieve in practical production terms. Further, the US Navy has long been aware of this weapon, and classified research has been underway for some time to produce a counter-foil against the Shkval. One thing for certain, Iran does not have a significant quantity of their 'Hoot', at any rate.
Interesting subject, Chris; thanks for bringing this up.
During the Falklands war the Argentine Navy fired a whole bunch that didn´t hit anything or explode when they did. I can imagine the crews screaming and cursing. People in Argentina are like that, mostly, especially when they miss a penalty kick.
I think many people have misunderstood some of the aims of this conflict and the long term thinking and planning that's going on.
Blinded by TDS and a public hooked on short term benefits over long term ones. They also underestimate just how hard it is to bring back such a wrecked economy. They seem to have memory holed 9% inflation and 37 trillion deficit and the proximate cause of cash unloaded by the treasury by a steam shovel sized bucket along with Covid Era tyranny.
The media is up to its old tricks of narrative creation as Chris has shown here in this article likely planted from all the Iranian Spies in Bidens Government.
These new democrats are just like the Iranian Mullahs, you the public are easily sacrificed for the cause.
Republicans aren't great, but they are not the radical monetarily Communist and social Facists representing the Democratic Party of today. If you elect these people they have no intention of making your life better. Have they even mentioned one plan,one policy that would improve your life?
No they haven't, it's just the jungle drums repeateding the same mantra over and over to the beat; Trump is bad, he's no good, pedophile, Nazi, fascist fool.
Sorry, Chris. Don't mean to hijack your post. But you always make things so much clearer and it opens up my mind and all these thoughts that flow from my brain onto the page. I got carried away.
I didn't read hijack, just thoughtful reflection, and thank you for going to the trouble.
My hope (probably foolish) is that at some point we'll get to a Hyperbole Singularity where even the most gank-brained glop-thumber will stare at their Palm Slab's AAAAAAAAAfest of the moment, and realize that maybe, just maybe, somebody's messing with their wetware when they have instantaneous emotional reactions to the Performative Hyperbole.
I also heard from a friend at the Washington Post, who is a highly respected journalist. They/Them told me that Iran had also acquired advanced, Chinese-made slingshots. What made these slingshots so terrifying was that they were designed to use not one, but SIX rubber bands. They were so powerful that they required 3 non-binary people to pull back the marble pouch.
It was rumored that they could launch a big marble several hundred miles into the air, at velocities that are unheard of. In classified, top-secret tests, unnamed sources reported a marble launched from one of these advanced weapons of war was thought to have hit the surface of the Moon.
"Don’t give the Americans time to park hundreds of warplanes next to your country..."
This seems to be like the saying, "don't attack Russia late in the year, because Winter is Coming." For some reason, no matter how many historical examples exist as to why this is a stupid idea, nations keep doing it.
Some nations just can´t help hiring their own cousins, instead of looking for qualified folks.
Xi and Putin can’t hire the most qualified folks, they can only hire the people who won’t use their military against them. It’s the fatal flaw in all dictatorships.
Promoting cousin marriage instead of prohibiting it could be a contributing factor.
Good point. Look what it did to West Virginia.
"Overall, the level of marriage to biological relatives ranged from 23% in Gilan to 78% in Sistan and Baluchistan." (2008) https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-biosocial-science/article/abs/modernization-or-cultural-maintenance-the-practice-of-consanguineous-marriage-in-iran/8BD5E78FD501A129B71B72944336EDA0
"The prevalence of consanguineous unions was 46.7% of the total marriages. First-cousin unions were the most frequenttype, comprising 30.2% of total marital unions." (2024) https://brieflands.com/journals/gct/articles/147204
"[W]ith a representative total sample of 306,343 couples [t]he overall rate of consanguineous marriage was 38.6%" (2004) https://sci-hub.st/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03014460310001652211
"The prevalence of cousin marriage in the Muslim world stands out (Bittles and Black 2010; Hamamy 2012), in particular that between children of brothers (Korotayev 2000). In Pakistan (Hussain and Bittles 1998) and Saudi Arabia (el-Hazmi et al. 1995), the rate of consanguineous marriage3 has been found to approach 60 percent; in other Muslim countries, rates fall in the 20–50 percent range." (2018) https://www.columbia.edu/~le93/Edlund18.pdf
Now compare those stats with rates of congenital syndromes and developmental delays in that population
It's hugely correlated, of course. In some places the government helps with genetic testing if requested, but given (much) higher rates among poorer, less educated, more rural pop that may not make a dent where most needed. The literature talks about 'culture' but patterns suggest the driving forces are economic (conserving resources within an extended family) bolstered by religious/state permission to treat offspring as household resources that can be traded for advantage.
Awful! And the left says no culture is better than another culture… hmm
Thank you for this interesting information. On a related note, I can´t help but notice that the prevalence of step-sibling, step-parent porn content is approaching one-hundred percent on my phone. Well, maybe I could help it.
Eww
To be fair, Napoleon and Hitler started in June, but winter comes awfully fast in Russia.
Good observation - yes winter does come early in Russia. Winter starts in mid-August there. I was there in 1977 traveling for several months. I had an attack of appendicitis and had to have it removed, it was already rupturing. I was taken to Botkin Hospital in Moscow to have it removed. I remember looking outside the window and seeing that it was already starting to turn to winter. I had been in the hospital for several weeks and was told that the weather would start to cool down and sure enough it did.
YES and they are supposed to know that,,its called scouting the enemy which includes terrain and weather...Would it be a good idea to launch an attack in the middle of a hurricane? A Blizzard? Well put those two together and you have winter in Russia
Actually the original German plan was to attack Russia in May, but Hitler diverted troops to help the Italians in Southeast Europe, delaying the attack by several weeks. Might have helped, but maybe not.
Russia is like one of Taylor Sheridan's characters in 1923 said about Montana, "They say in Montana there are only 3 seasons, June, July, and winter."
nonsense. Everyone knows there are two seasons in Montana
Winter and July 8th
or
Winter and construction season.
Thats Funny
fair enough, but it's also reasonable to assume that if Italy is on your side, you will ultimately lose and Italy will switch sides and declare victory with the winners.
LOL! The Axis alliance was a strange one, mostly based on we all want things we ain't got. Let's get together and worry about splitting it up after we win. The US and the English Empire were a much more compatible fit with the same language and somewhat similar cultures. Also both were huge transoceanic sea powers. The USSR was, of course, an alliance of convenience, and we all know how well that worked out.
Wrong. See my comment above.
I was replying to Frank,,please fill me in
See comment below. "Scouting weather" downstream from a major solar episode is meaningless.
No.
The winter of 1941-42 was recorded as the coldest European winter of the 20th century.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/70/3/1520-0477_1989_070_0271_tswiet_2_0_co_2.xml
This is no surprise to Sunwatch Geeks:
> Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered.
https://eos.org/features/the-geomagnetic-blitz-of-september-1941
The effects of such major solar/electrical activity on earth's weather patterns cannot be overstated. But they can be observed, again and again, after the fact.
Space weather--how the Sun receives and transmits electromagnetic energy from The Vast Beyond--is the single most important factor in how goes anything bigly here on earth. And many smol things as well, like the love lives of little gnats n bees, and the doings of actinomycetes soil bacteria networks (electrical networks, after all).
We can bet that DJT's team has learned a lot about all this since the Germans set out to stop the central banks'/City of London's darling pet Bolsheviki that sad winter.
We can bet that many of the Adversarial forces know a lot about it now as well.
We laugh at ancient sun worshippers. But they knew how important it was to keep aligned with, and respectful of, Helios.
Or go start a war in Afghanistan. This time, it's different!
they say fourth times a charm though.
TBF, they can't invade in the Spring because of the mud, and in the Summer it's just so nice, nobody wants to leave the beach.
Hitler was on drugs,,but thats not me showing empathy,,I believe he was not a genius
Some drugs make the user think he's a genius.
"Cocaine is a hell of a drug."
-Rick James\
(somebody had to quote that)
You beat me to it.👍🏻
I've heard this often said about Gavin Newsom. Never knew they were quoting Rick James.
Really he's a snowman??
Alcohol and cocaine are the drugs we know Gruesome has abused in his past. Now, every time he becomes extra-erratic, extra-megalomaniacal, and/or extra-grandiose, observers will pop up who amusingly say, "That cocaine is a hell of a drug," implying that Gov Gav has fallen off the wagon. Again.
now I think I know what happened to all that bullet train money.
I'm not surprised California is no problem do your thing man type of place
No kidding
The Germans’ first mistake was to think that Russia 2.0 was going to be a repeat of 1914-1917, and assuming that their successes in Poland, Benelux, and France would translate completely to a vastly bigger nation with more than twice the population. They also hadn’t made good their losses in vehicles and aircraft from those campaigns and the Battle of Britain.
A lot of stars needed to align perfectly for Operation Barbarossa to work. They didn’t.
Go America!
This has been going on my entire life. The media droned on and fear mongered during the first gulf war.
Iraq had the fourth largest army… the fearsome revolutionary guard…
Yadda, yadda, yadda.
I forgot about the elite Republican Guard until you mentioned it, and then it all came flooding back.
That’s it, “elite republican guard”. I forgot the phrase and typed off the cuff while making my son waffles this morning.
Yeah, I was on leave visiting my parents during Desert Shield and they’d bought into the “elite” hype. I told them to not believe it, that it would be a slaughter the other way. A couple weeks later Desert Storm was over within hours. Career Air Force so I knew what our capabilities were.
everyone seems to keep using this word "elite" incorrectly.
Then it became, as Bill Hicks put it, "The Republicans were lying about there being elite guards..."
The Iraq War was a great success, then? I missed the news about that somehow.
Note how the success in Venezuela has been ignored as Maduro’s girl Delcy Rodriguez is now praising Trump and doing our bidding. Funny how the threat of a visit from US Special Forces in the middle of the night will get folks to listen to us.
...And be converted for life? (We hope)
Here is a much overlooked short clip of Trump dealing with the Taliban. You can be guaranteed that the exact same thing happened with Delcy Rodriguez after the Maduro raid. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RPzXbmFYS-E
That was awesome.
I had heard this story but had never seen the clip. The clip is better. Thank you, Ataraxis.
All they are selling is extended warranties for defense contractors. Same idea as well visits at your local bleeding station.
On a similar note: all the pundits are claiming that Trump / Netanyahu haven’t thought through an end game for the war. I find this not credible. Both countries have had decades to wargame this conflict and Trump in particular knows his legacy and the future of MAGA rides on this being successful. I don’t think Trump has ever shown suicidal recklessness so I posit we will see some sort of transition to am Iranian non-Islamic state at the end of this.
Heard the same talk here in canada yesterday, i said why on earth would trump tell us what the plan or end game is as that would also be telling the Iranians.
Why assume there is no plan just because we don't know what the plan is?
I see a methodical degradation of regime capabilities, which sounds like a plan.
As I recall Trump said this repeatedly when campaigning. That is, about the stupidity of broadcasting when, where, and how the U.S. would attack the enemy. A good example of Trumpian common-sense thinking regarding war plans that resonated with the thoughts of common-sense people who heard it.
If nothing else he is sober his whole life no alcohol or drugs,,so he has a lifetime of real reflection also the perspective of loss,,he owns a ton of property so knows the pain,,hes playing with real,,not fake. He sees America as home like his house and he will fight to keep it safe and nice and also for his family..People who go through their whole lives never turning to substances,,know massive perspective and gain much character by suffering through and being stronger at the other end...I trust him.
All the pundits supporting forever wars are complaining about no end game??? Wtf is forever war???
Agreed. Also Trump is not stupid, he is actually a brilliant genius. I've watched him closely for 45 yrs, he's always 100 steps ahead of the enemy.
One of the biggest indicators of the, excuse me, dumbassification and degradation of the populace is how many people cannot look at this man, and--whether or not they like him, or agree with particular points/approaches--see that he's operating on another level than anything witnessed in the "postwar" era. And how lucky we are to have this on OUR side.
I feel sad for them, missing out on a helluva moment/juncture in human history. Trying to thwart it, to stay mired in the garbage of the past 80 years (plus). They've been systematically, deliberately steeped in self-hatred...and that is another piece of DJT's genius as--as Dawn puts it just above--a sober, solid, real man who reaches into people's best, motivating them at that level.
It's hard to feel much but embarassment for them as they react to excellence, vision, and history-arc-bending invitation (THEY TOO ARE INVITED!!!) with the most tawdry, debased/debasing words and actions, clinging to those who debase them with that ugly programming. Embracing their degradation.
Very well-said, I couldn't agree more with you!!
His strategic vision is on display for all to see, but the Uniparty TDS crowd is willfully blind and says the opposite of what we see with our own eyesbecause they want their grift to continue. Them vs. Us. Insiders vs. The People. https://xcancel.com/catturd2/status/2029577996353307077#m
"On a similar note: all the pundits are claiming that Trump / Netanyahu haven’t thought through an end game for the war."
True, but maybe that's because Trump and Rubio know that such planning is fragile in the chaotic situation that ensues and understands that nimbleness is more important than planning. (How'd that Iraq War succession planning go for you, George W?)
"... such planning is fragile..."
Indeed. And also liable to be spilled to the regime media, social media, and other nations friend and foe courtesy of our traitorous Congress.
I wouldn't trust them with an invite to a toddler's surprise party.
No doubt. But I think there has been much more planning within Iran for opposition forces to move once Basij, IRGC are degraded enough. We shall see
As the saying goes, "Planning is everything, and planning is nothing."
All planning ends when the first shot is fired.
There's a reason the Russians got rid of that cavitating shit. they first came out with it in the early 80s, and I was on submarines from the 80s through the 00s. We laughed at that silly thing, and we still do. Russia cut their losses and quit wasting money on it, then to recoup some, they sold it to their idiot cousins the Iranians.
Russia, as a rule, never gets rid of anything. Proof of that, is that they are now using T 34s on the front lines... (the fact that that's all they got left is irrelevant, the point is, they kept them.) So if they got rid of something, there's a reason: It's shit.
I'm hearing this comment in Fred Thompson's voice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YULytWUaKR0
Think about it. Less than three years ago, Chris was writing about the U.S. military's poorly planned and ultimately doomed effort to build a landing dock on the Gazan shore. What has changed since then is leadership--a new Commander in Chief, a new Sec'y of the Dept. of War and a new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
100%. Bad leadership is cancer.
... dudes in dresses vs no dudes in dresses.
Dang, you're good at this, Chris. Thank you for another very fine post.
"Don’t give the Americans time to park hundreds of warplanes next to your country..."
…while simultaneously declaring that your entire purpose is to destroy America and then working hard to make that threat plausible
How about stop saying Death to America. You risk people taking you seriously and responding in kind.
I think there are lessons being learned by many. Not sure if Russia is capable of learning them since it hasn't learned much from 4 years fighting in Ukraine, but the Chicoms might be able to.
Might. But I'm guessing not, because the fundamental ones are about military leadership and institutional trust and the commissars can't accept them.
But yes some basics are that a) the US and Israel (and other US allies like Japan) have amazingly good toys that are way better than the Temu versions from West Taiwan and b) when the US want's it can project overwhelming force.
There were numerous lies told about Ukraine/Russia war. Russia actually ran circles around Ukraine, as their leader Zelensky is a moron. LOTS of Ukrainian soldiers were killed, not nearly as many Russians were. Ukraine in fact now has no one left to fight their war and started drafting women and old people into that war some years ago. Psychopaths were in charge of military ops and the Ukraine and contrary to popular belief, psychopaths are actually stupid compared to the average person. This is one reason why Trump/U.S. military is running circles around the enemy and the invasions we do are very short-lived.
... numerous lies told. Let's use the active voice. Most of the media and most of the pundits told numerous lies, wished-it-to-be-true, about the Russians and Ukraine because they bought what auto-pen was selling and wanted to prop him up. Most of the American public believed those lies. This is why few understand why Trump and US military are running circles and invasions are short-lived.
It would probably sound more convincing in the original Russian...
very true, but there can be no argument that vaunted Russian military after five years is still tied up fighting a war against a contiguous neighbor that is one fourth its size.
I hear you; I also read recently that the war is actually not still going on but for some reason Russia wants to make it look that way. I do know that Ukraine had at least 39 hidden biohazard labs which needed to be found and destroyed and also it was a HUGE center for child trafficking which needed to be destroyed. Also lots of Nazis, who were the real rulers of Ukraine. They went back there in 1950s and never left. In 2014 they took over Ukraine govt. If you look at videos or pictures of Ukraine that Ukrainians have taken and posted (I did), you would see lots of swastikas on flags, military uniforms etc. All of that would have taken a very long time to clean out. I also read about 2 yrs ago that Ukraine had no military age men left to fight in that war and that they were drafting old men and women, also even pregnant women. IOW, they were very desperate. I don't know what's going on there now, but dealing with all that would take quite awhile and they may be still doing that. It seems Russia took down Ukraine in a very short time but after that they have had a lot to clean out. I do know you do not want to mess with the Russians when it comes to war.
The issue with western military ops is not technical, it's political. China can afford to lose fifty ships for every one the US can because the US media and public can make a fuss and the Chinese can just build bigger internment camps. If Russia really is losing 1,000+ men a day (which I doubt, to be honest), I'm not sure that's something we would tolerate. It would be a very tough sell - like, national survival levels - for western nations to accept that I think.
What's the old quote from Stalin-"Quantity has it's own quality"
"The one with the rifle shoots! The one without follows him! When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots!"
America is unique in the world in that we deprecate our weapon systems. I know this firsthand. Because we don't want to give away how powerful and capable our weapon systems are, we actually release what amounts to public misinformation underplaying their capabilities. We have public critiques of flaws or gaps in our war machines. Every other country boasts about "super weapons" and capabilities they don't actually have.
If only we had a President who was willing to use our singular capacities to destroy those who would destroy us..., oh wait, we do.
good point, but I think its more complicated than that. If you look to the 60's, the US population was lied to repeatedly about being way behind in missile tech compared to the Soviets. The reason was funding concerns for expansion of defense industrial complex. Then look at the fall of the Soviet Union which was built up over decades as a huge threat. The intelligence agencies gave zero warning about their fragility. The point is there's big money in building up the external threats and raising fears.... Wait, Covid hysteria has entered the chat.
During Vietnam, I did six years in the Navy. Did 5 patrols on 2 different missile subs, or “boats” as they are called. That was a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. But even THEN, we had some seriously frightening shit.
As many have posted here, when the United States is led by a fearless-focused, circumspect leader, we are epic warriors. Sadly, Vietnam was not such a time as this.
Regrettably, our leaders during Viet Nam, Afghanistan & Iraq lost sight of the role of the U.S. military, which is to kill people, break their shit (both as quickly as possible), and leave. We persuaded almost no one local of anything.
I would desperately love to know what the U.S. game plan for Iran is for 5 minutes after the end of “breaking their 💩.”
Now that we (supposedly) have 100% air supremacy, we need to start para-dropping hundreds (or thousands) of pallets of AK-47s & ammo to give the civilians a chance against the 150K members of IRGC & other armed regime dead-enders.
A day or two ago, Victor Davis Hanson did a refreshing and reassuring view of Trump, available in American Greatness: “Trump’s-way-of-war”
Thanks.
(BTW, the link is broken but I found it elsewhere via the name.)
Wow those Supercavitating-expialidocious torpedoes sure are....sorry, forgot. Got lost in that thicket of "expert" analysis. I, of course, shall now call them the Dick van Dyke Torpedoes.
“Supercavitating-expialidocious torpedoes”. ROFLMAO!
We haven't seen any Iranian submarines yet, so we can't really say what their impact might be. But the Iranians are not stupid. They very likely understand that sinking a carrier will create a very strong impulse in the US to go nuclear. That would be ironic, given it is what all this is ostensibly about, but no sane person or nation wants to be the new message the US sends to the rest of the world. Even insane people mostly want to live.
The US is highly unlikely to go nuclear. A nuclear bomb is an indiscriminate, wide-area weapon that mainly kills civilian non-combatants. The aim of the war is to liberate those civilian non-combatants. On top of that, a nuclear attack on Iran would give Putin permission to do the same to Ukraine and various European targets.
I hope you're right. But when Kennedy spoke so eloquently about living our lives without fear of devastation, what he didn't say was that the USSR was the major recipient of the message of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, and they lived their lives in fear of a nuclear first strike from the West, for decades. Because they got the message, loud and clear.
Bush 2 changing the doctrine to include "pre-emptive nuclear war" was another message of the same kind, sent precisely because most of the people who received the first message were dead. Today almost all of them are dead. I have no doubt there is a faction of the MIC complex that thinks the message needs to be sent again. A kind of hybrid Ledeen/Nuclear doctrine.
I hope very much I am wrong.
I just don't think so.
Wrong maybe in the technical specifics...but not the human continuities.
I grew up in the #2 target for Soviet ICBMs. We were still doing duck and cover drills in the schools in the late '70s. Then what "Ivan" didn't destroy, "deindustrialization" (thanks to the City of London) did.
I came to terms with the resulting Doom Trauma in the Punk '80s. Or think I did. (Except for maybe four instances since, the Nuke Doom nightmares stopped.)
Today I have much bigger concerns about DEWs, which are a lot easier for bad actors to build than nukes. As Mike notes, nukes--at least as presented to our understanding--are sloppy instruments of terror. The precision command of electromagnetic standing waves is a whole nuther universe of malevolence/destruction. And the "Russians" (meaning Soviets) were certainly holding their own in that set of developments.
Most days I give thanks that it is not my lot to be one of the Guardians who know way more about this than anyone should have to...never mind have to figure out what to do about it.
Well it hasn’t happened in 8- years so maybe you are wrong.
It is always possible.
lol
So the Iranians are playing a crafty game of “wait until they wipe out 99% of our military, THEN we have them”! If they could sink a carrier, they would have tried already. The build up of forces wasn’t a surprise, it happened over weeks. The Iranians had time to position a sub (or subs) and hide some hypersonic missiles along the coast, but obviously didn’t, because they would have used them if they had. I’m no military expert, but giving the enemy a chance to destroy your best weapons before you try to use them is dumb.
why are the Iranians attacking other muslim countries, what to they hope to gain by bombing Dubai,,that would only piss me off as alot of wealth was spent on building Dubai to be an international destination not just a Middle eastern attraction
Three things. Those countries have an American military presence no matter how slight, I believe the countries they've attacked are Sunni majority unlike the Iranian Shia regime, and last, their command and control structure has been so degraded that these shots are likely done at the local level.
If those behind the launches are smart, they fired everything they could and then vamoosed before the inevitable retaliation came to wipe out the source of the missile launches, because they know that by firing they just gave away their positions.
I’ve seen satellite photos of Iranian submarines, and what was left after an air raid on their base.
The US says it has already sunk some Iranian subs. My strong belief is that any Iranian sub that is left is going to be detected and sunk well before it gets close to a US carrier.
The actual concerning lesson for the US is this - https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/2029414992089403523
And, while it is true that Hegseth has only been in office for a year, this really ought to have been a priority. No Shahads won't hurt carriers, but they can absolutely put the hurt in a lot of stuff that is not so well defended
A US Navy commander was effectively banished for sinking a carrier in a Straits of Hormuz wargame scenario over 20 years ago, using a small boat fleet to overwhelm the automated defenses. As one writer put it 20 years before that:
"the message was clear; do not embarrass the powerful. The napalm said it all."
Such reactions do not give one confidence that lessons have been learned and weapons and tactics adjusted accordingly.
Especially after the Ukraine experience, the DoW still has not visibly altered its corrupt white elephant weapons procurement programs to focus on low-cost swarms of either offensive or defensive capabilities ... where that leads is obvious to any who care to look. The major strategic benefit of proxy wars, whatever their immediate objectives may be, whatever anyone thinks of their legality or morality, is that they are *current* weapons and tactics proving grounds. But if the only lesson the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex ever learns is that more expensive and fragile weapons systems are more profitable for them, then strategic defeat is only matter of time.
Secretly hiding thousands of drones scares me these Iranian military are sick people they will build bunkers under hospitals and schools
USA/Zion double tapped when bombing school kids, killing hundreds. Fuck you and your empty moralizing.
Most people manage to disagree here without thoughtful arguments like "fuck you."
Someone defending the bombing of school children is obscene and deserves the epithet.
I will be more discrete in the future out of respect.
Yes, good host.
But in you opening space for chthonic rational discourse, you invite in whole people, some of whom bring many years of pent-up frustration/hurt/anger censored/silenced elsewhere. There is so much Borne Trauma...several generations now. Those who inflict it as a means of power/control have made every succeeding generation of it more devious, deeper striking, more silenced.
I used to think that discursive Nerf combat could help...but then there was the "covid" psyop, showing just how far the Adversarials were willing to go to inject pain, loss, fear, etc., into souls.
(And miss me with the religion thing. The biggest masktards, jabstabbers, floor-arrow-pointers, and Stasi Karens I and my darling encountered were among evangelicals and Catholics. We knew evangelicals who were enthusiastically building "covid" concentration camps. We knew Catholics who smugly watched staffers get fired for refusing stabs, then never bothered following up with them to make sure their kids were fed and housed. There is no god but Pharma, and Fauci is his profit!)
We have lived through a time when identity categories license some people to commit any crime, and still call themselves victims.
Many people who would reject that when the category is "trans activist" or "anti racist" are just dandy with it, when the identity is one they choose to privilege/defend.
I sense that Scott's frustration, however ill expressed, derives from that. It's a problem still festering in the vitals of the body politic. I'd guess that for every "f-u" he vents, there are a hundred more he must swallow on a daily basis. We need some praxis on what to do about that.
so now we are going to compare blood,,,Oct7th,,,9-11 so many examples
I read yesterday that Trump announced we had taken all their submarines, they have none left.
Yes the Iranians are not stupid; however, the Iranians who are fundamentalist Moslems who support the ayatollah ARE stupid. They have made some really dumb moves. At this point. all their leaders are gone, yet they are still running around on their motorcycles trying to terrorize the public. They aren't succeeding and the rest of the Iranians who never liked the ayatollah are laughing at them. This info comes from Iranians themselves. They ayatollah minions are pretty well finished and this was announced last night.
As for nuclear weapons, no I don't think Trump would use them, he wants to end nuclear weapons and dropping them in Iran would obliterate tons of people. I've noticed that he does everything he can to save lives of citizens of the countries he has gone into to take out corrupt leaders. He tries to save as many lives as possible when it comes to the citizens of other countries and our own military.
> the Iranians who are fundamentalist Moslems who support the ayatollah ARE stupid. They have made some really dumb moves
Why do you think they were put into positions of power by the real movers and shakers in the Middle East (the City of London, for starters)?
They understand that sinking a US Navy carrier requires being able to Sink a US Navy carrier and very much would love to sink a US Navy carrier and will do so as soon as they can figure out how to sink a US Navy carrier.
There’s at least 50 leaders that didn’t get the memo. 50 and counting.
That observation reinforces the point: unless the message is repeated, emphatically, it will be forgotten.
Iran's 'Hoot' torpedo, based upon the Russian-made export model VA-111 Shkval-E cavitating torpedo, which can ostensibly reach 200 knots, is not a perfect weapon, (although I agree with you that the naval aircraft carrier's heydays are now much like those of the old-style battleship...over and almost done with), since their chief asset (ultra-high underwater speed) actually works against them. Consider the following serious drawbacks of the Russian Shkvals:
1. Maneuverability and Control
Traditional torpedoes use fins to steer, but fins are useless inside a gas bubble because they have no water to "grip."
The "Wall" Problem: To turn, the torpedo must tilt, but if it tilts too far, the tail or body hits the wall of the water cavity (called "planing"). This creates massive, asymmetrical drag that can cause the torpedo to tumble or break apart.
Vectoring Challenges: Steering usually requires complex thrust vectoring (moving the rocket nozzle) or pivoting the nose cavitator, both of which are mechanically difficult to execute at such high speeds.
2. Guidance and Sensing (The "Blindness" Issue)
This is perhaps the biggest tactical hurdle.
Acoustic Noise: Supercavitating torpedoes are powered by rockets and generate a massive amount of noise from the collapsing bubble. This deafens the torpedo’s own sonar sensors.
Signal Blockage: The gas-water interface of the bubble reflects and refracts sonar signals, making it nearly impossible for the torpedo to "see" its target while at high speed. Consequently, most are "fire-and-forget" weapons that travel in a straight line.
3. Short Range and Fuel Efficiency
Maintaining a supercavitation bubble requires immense energy.
Drag vs. Speed: While the bubble reduces skin friction, the energy required to vaporize water or pump exhaust gases to the nose to maintain that bubble is enormous.
Fuel Constraints: Because they use rocket motors instead of propellers, they burn through fuel rapidly. This limits their effective range to a few kilometers, whereas modern conventional torpedoes (like the Mark 48) can travel dozens of kilometers.
4. Stealth and Detection
A supercavitating torpedo is anything but "silent and deep."
Loudness: They are incredibly loud, giving the target immediate notice that a launch has occurred.
The "Wake" Problem: The massive bubble and rocket exhaust leave a very visible trail in the water, making the launch platform (the submarine) easy to locate and counter-attack.
5. Depth Limitations
The pressure of the surrounding water increases with depth. The deeper the torpedo goes, the harder it is to maintain the gas bubble. Most supercavitating designs are restricted to relatively shallow depths, which limits their versatility in deep-sea engagements.
Russia is reportedly developing newer versions of the Shkval that address these glaring deficiencies, but the technology is both tricky and costly to achieve in practical production terms. Further, the US Navy has long been aware of this weapon, and classified research has been underway for some time to produce a counter-foil against the Shkval. One thing for certain, Iran does not have a significant quantity of their 'Hoot', at any rate.
Interesting subject, Chris; thanks for bringing this up.
Chris, reading your post over breakfast I clicked on the link for the submarine-fired torpedoes. My knees won’t stop knocking. Hell’s bells.
Right? It's like hand of God stuff.
Hand of Tesla methinks.
Absolutely terrifying. The word “awesome” is so overused, but appropriate in this case.
During the Falklands war the Argentine Navy fired a whole bunch that didn´t hit anything or explode when they did. I can imagine the crews screaming and cursing. People in Argentina are like that, mostly, especially when they miss a penalty kick.
I think many people have misunderstood some of the aims of this conflict and the long term thinking and planning that's going on.
Blinded by TDS and a public hooked on short term benefits over long term ones. They also underestimate just how hard it is to bring back such a wrecked economy. They seem to have memory holed 9% inflation and 37 trillion deficit and the proximate cause of cash unloaded by the treasury by a steam shovel sized bucket along with Covid Era tyranny.
The media is up to its old tricks of narrative creation as Chris has shown here in this article likely planted from all the Iranian Spies in Bidens Government.
These new democrats are just like the Iranian Mullahs, you the public are easily sacrificed for the cause.
Republicans aren't great, but they are not the radical monetarily Communist and social Facists representing the Democratic Party of today. If you elect these people they have no intention of making your life better. Have they even mentioned one plan,one policy that would improve your life?
No they haven't, it's just the jungle drums repeateding the same mantra over and over to the beat; Trump is bad, he's no good, pedophile, Nazi, fascist fool.
Sorry, Chris. Don't mean to hijack your post. But you always make things so much clearer and it opens up my mind and all these thoughts that flow from my brain onto the page. I got carried away.
I didn't read hijack, just thoughtful reflection, and thank you for going to the trouble.
My hope (probably foolish) is that at some point we'll get to a Hyperbole Singularity where even the most gank-brained glop-thumber will stare at their Palm Slab's AAAAAAAAAfest of the moment, and realize that maybe, just maybe, somebody's messing with their wetware when they have instantaneous emotional reactions to the Performative Hyperbole.
Tis a dim hope, but I hold on to it.
I like to dream of a time where credibility based on past performance and integrity will be the measuring sticks for our leaders.
Beautifully put.
Carry away Sista Rose-Marie! 🕵🏼♀️💪🏽
I also heard from a friend at the Washington Post, who is a highly respected journalist. They/Them told me that Iran had also acquired advanced, Chinese-made slingshots. What made these slingshots so terrifying was that they were designed to use not one, but SIX rubber bands. They were so powerful that they required 3 non-binary people to pull back the marble pouch.
It was rumored that they could launch a big marble several hundred miles into the air, at velocities that are unheard of. In classified, top-secret tests, unnamed sources reported a marble launched from one of these advanced weapons of war was thought to have hit the surface of the Moon.
Mostly.
where you gonna find 3 non-binaries when you actually need them?
You got me there, buddy! Prolly just go to the nearest anti-ICE protest. They’ll be like fleas on a dog.