More Expensive, So Smaller

the federal budget is very strange

Don’t trust me. Don’t take my word for it. Pick something, and look at it yourself.

The federal budget has grown explosively in this century.

Though these are values unadjusted for inflation, federal spending is on track to grow from $2 trillion a year to $8 trillion a year — currently passing through $7 trillion — in a quarter of a century. Note the sharp spike of that “outlays” line for the pandemic, which then reset a new normal for federal spending.

However.

A September 29 story in the Los Angeles Times reports on the common theme in the explosive growth of recent California wildfires:

The shortages have resulted in Forest Service stations in Southern California sitting empty because there is no one to supervise them, according to the fire chiefs. Fennessy shared a staffing report from the morning of Sept. 9, when the Airport fire started, that listed 14 of the Cleveland National Forest’s 28 engines as unavailable and another report showing the Trabuco Station was unstaffed by federal firefighters for the first two weeks of the month. He described those staffing levels as typical.

Of the roughly 25 Forest Service stations in San Bernardino County, only 11 or so are staffed at any given time, at best, Munsey said.

Meanwhile, here’s a news headline from last month:

So the empty fire stations on federal land are about to start…cutting back.

Or take the catastrophic hurricane-caused flooding in North Carolina, Tennessee, and other states. How will FEMA respond? Well, it has difficulty, see, because it’s out of money.

The Merchant Marine is extraordinarily important to national security, as maritime officers trained for commercial shipping also constitute a force that supports the US Navy and can be used in military emergencies. You can read the US Maritime Administration’s FY 2025 budget request here. Opening paragraphs:

Our function is very important, we maintain the National Defense Reserve Fleet, we train new officers through our service academy, we’re responsible for “strategic mobility for national security,” our budget request is 12% smaller than the one we submitted last year. While the ILA strikes to prevent the automation of ports, by the way, the Maritime Administration is sharply reducing spending on its port infrastructure development program: “For FY 2025, $80 million is requested for the PIDP, a decrease of $132.2 million from the FY 2023 enacted level, for grants to improve port infrastructure and facilities.” A total of $80 million a year in infrastructure grants isn’t going to automate a single port, so I’m not seeing the cause for concern. America doesn’t really do the infrastructure thing.

At the same time, as I’ve said before, the 594-ship US Navy of 1987 now numbers in the high-200s, with an aggressive decommissioning schedule and tentative plans to start mothballing additional support ships soon. Meanwhile, the US Army “finished fiscal year 2023 with only 452,000 active duty soldiers, its smallest force since 1940,” and is planning further reductions.

Look around you. If you spend a lot of time on federal lands, camping or hunting or making meth — but don’t really do that last one — do you see more rangers, more visitor centers, more campgrounds, and more fire stations? What federal service is growing? What do you see more of? Spending rising from $2 trillion to $7 trillion now, with $8 trillion projected for the very near future — where do you see the growth?

Spend some time at the Federal Budget in Pictures website, where you’ll find charts like this:

Federal spending is skyrocketing, as is government spending at all levels. The federal government as a doer of deeds and a provider of services is collapsing. The growth in spending is for handouts. The federal government is becoming a bucket of free money to be pillaged. The more it spends, the less it does: massive budget, empty fire stations.

We have a giant government that can’t do very much. “Tell me how this ends.”