Gavin's Keynesian Hole

subsidy farm, money laundry, giant concrete billboard

A test of “let’s just go look at the thing itself.”

Start with a description: “In 2008, California voters approved $9.95 billion of state bond funding as seed money to build an 800-mile high-speed rail (HSR) network connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco, and the Central Valley to coastal cities, at speeds of up to 220 miles per hour, with an expected completion date of 2020.”

Construction started in 2015. Pause for a moment and really notice the date.

Ten years later, the project has consumed $18 billion, and an effort to connect Los Angeles and San Francisco has turned into a much more modest “Phase One” plan to connect the cities of the Central Valley, well east of the coast. The modest declared cost of the proposed LA-to-SF bullet train now looks like this for the much shorter line: “a cost range of $89 billion to $128 billion.” The Trump administration has declined to provide more federal funding for the project, but California is suing to try to keep the federal spigot open.

Most of the project remains unbuilt, but California cheerfully describes it as an ongoing success, with a bunch of structures in place:

Famously, the California High-Speed Rail Authority has been posting pictures of its huge construction successes on social media:

See, that’s…almost a whole rail line for a bullet train. Obviously!

So!

If you ever find yourself in Fresno, and I sincerely hope you don’t, the structures that have been built for “high-speed rail” are surprisingly easy to access. There are several places where those structures aren’t fenced in or guarded. At all.

So when you see this:

…it’s not that hard to just head up onto the thing. It’s also very dangerous, legally dubious, and something you definitely shouldn’t do. Since it’s an elevated construction site, there are a lot of places without guardrails where you can just fall off the thing, and it’s a long way down.

Everyone see this part: Don’t go up there. It’s dangerous. You can fall and die.

Now. If you watch the video above from the California High-Speed Rail Authority, you’ll see them declare that they’re ready to start laying track, or that they’re almost ready to start being ready to start thinking about preparing to lay track. Screenshot:

But if you were to climb up onto the thing, which you absolutely should never do, you would see a whole bunch of this:

That’s a section at the northern end of Fresno, looking south. Here’s how all of that fits together:

Concrete structure, then a bunch of dirt. Ready for track!

Here’s a stretch on the southern side of Fresno, looking north:

The transitions between concrete and dirt are…a little rough, if the goal is to lay track soon for a train that goes 220 miles-per-hour:

Predictably, these structures are becoming urban playgrounds, and getting their first decent coat of graffiti.

Fresno apparently has a straight edge skinhead community that’s looking to go on the hunt like Brad Pitt:

Also, since the High-Speed Rail Authority has built very solid concrete structures that are separated from the city by elevation, they’re developing the telltale piles of open food cans and old clothes that spell “safe place to sleep.”

Ten years, $18 billion. That’s what it looks like.